Memphis (48-34) at Golden State (48-34)
- When: Apr 15 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Play-In Tournament: Grizzlies vs. Warriors Betting Preview
Spread: Warriors -7.0 | Total: 228.5
Golden State Warriors: Veteran Core Eyes Deep Run
The Warriors enter this Play-In showdown as 7-point home favorites, backed by a red-hot finish to the regular season after acquiring Jimmy Butler. Since the trade deadline deal, Golden State went 23-7 with Butler in the lineup, showing they’re still a force when healthy and focused.
Stephen Curry continues to defy age, averaging 24.5 points and 6.0 assists while knocking down 311 triples this year — his sixth season hitting the 300-mark. With Butler adding 17.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds since joining the team, Golden State now has two closers to lean on late in games.
Draymond Green’s leadership, Curry’s shot-making, and Butler’s playoff grit make the Warriors a scary matchup. However, they’ll need to rebound better after getting crushed 42-25 on the glass by the Clippers in the regular season finale. Expect them to focus early on boxing out against an aggressive Memphis frontcourt.
Top Player Props to Watch:
Stephen Curry OVER 28.5 Points – He dropped 52 in his last matchup vs. Memphis.
Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 Assists – Consistent facilitator since joining the team.
Warriors Prediction:
Golden State’s playoff-tested roster steps up in crunch time. Expect a fast start and a strong fourth quarter. They should cover the -7 and lock in the No. 7 seed.
Score Projection: Warriors 119, Grizzlies 108
Memphis Grizzlies: Underdogs With Nothing to Lose
The Grizzlies limp into the Play-In with a lot of turnover — head coach Taylor Jenkins was fired with just nine games left in the season. Interim coach Tuomas Iisalo managed to steady the team down the stretch, going 4-5, including a dominant 132-97 win over Dallas to close the regular season.
Lamar Stevens is coming off a career-high 31 points, and this young Memphis team is playing loose, knowing all the pressure is on Golden State. Despite missing key players like Ja Morant and Steven Adams, the Grizzlies have remained competitive, playing with energy and aggression.
They’ve already proven they can blow out the Warriors — a 144-93 rout in December included a franchise-record 27 made threes. However, Golden State is far more cohesive now, and that earlier result is unlikely to repeat on the road in a must-win game.
Top Player Props to Watch:
Lamar Stevens OVER 14.5 Points – Riding a hot hand and will get volume.
Desmond Bane OVER 2.5 Threes – The go-to shooter from deep with Morant out.
Grizzlies Prediction:
Memphis will play hard and hang around for stretches, but their lack of consistent scoring options will catch up late.
Score Projection: Warriors 118, Grizzlies 108
Betting Summary:
Best Bet ATS: Golden State -7.0
Total Lean: UNDER 228.5 – Defense tightens up in a high-stakes game
Player Props: Curry points over, Stevens points over, Butler assists over
Winner Gets No. 7 Seed. The Warriors’ core delivers under pressure — again.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
