The Miami Heat made a shock run to the NBA Finals last season, taking down the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics, before eventually falling to the Denver Nuggets. Can an aging Jimmy Butler deliver another set of clutch postseason performances, or will the Heat fall back into mediocrity in the Eastern Conference?
Miami Heat Offseason Recap
The Heat made some quiet, yet effective moves in the offseason. First, they unloaded Victor Oladipo and his salary, after a tumultuous tenure in Miami. Oladipo suited up for only 42 games last season and dealt with injury issues throughout his time in Miami. His limited presence from deep will be missed. However, with fresh talent on the horizon, the Heat had to make the move.
Also departing Miami is fan favorite Max Strus. Strus was clinical from behind the arc, but his one-dimensional play put limitations on Miami’s offense. As good of a catch and shoot player he is, his inability to score from all 3 levels never allowed him to become the player he could have been.
Joining the fray in Miami is Thomas Bryant and Josh Richardson. Bryant had a successful stint with the Lakers and Nuggets last season, and the 26-year-old still has plenty of room to grow. Bryant is a menace in the paint on the offensive glass and is always looking to get open for easy shots. Considering the volume of isolation we will see from Butler, Bryant will be able to provide valuable minutes off the bench and give defenses a different look compared to Bam Adebayo. Richardson has bounced from team to team over the last few seasons and will be hoping a starting role in Miami will allow him to find his new home. His .365 3-point percentage will allow him to fill the role left behind by Strus’ and Gabe Vincent’s departures.
While the move didn’t materialize, the trade talks surrounding Damian Lillard dominated the media in Miami. The Heat didn’t offer a substantial enough package for the talented point guard, and Portland opted to send him to Milwaukee, despite the superstar’s request for Miami. It remains to be seen if the Heat can remain competitive without any major upgrades. And if this season goes South, the fallout of this deal will be talked about for years to come.
Miami Heat Season Expectations
The Heat are an interesting team to digest. They’ve finished in the top 4 of the East just once in the last 4 years but have made 3 Conference Finals and 2 NBA Finals in that span. It’s easy to forget how effective the Heat’s scheme can be in the postseason. And as long as they qualify for the playoffs, they have the capability to make waves. After making the Finals twice in the last 4 years, the only goal for the Heat will be to do so once again. They may not have the talent other Eastern Conference contenders have up their sleeves, but their tenacity on both ends of the court has allowed them to stay relevant in the postseason. Eric Spolestra demands maximum effort from his men for all 48 minutes. And as long as they have Jimmy Butler, the Heat will not go down easy. Butler averaged 22.9 PPG in the regular season last year but turned it up to another level in the postseason, scoring 26.9 PPG on 47% from the floor, and chipping in with a team high 5.9 Assists. Butler is one of the toughest guards in open court and consistently delivers mid-range jump shots with ease. If his teammates hit their shots, the Heat could go deep once again.
Miami Heat Schedule Breakdown
The Heat open up the season at home against the Pistons but then play 12 of their next 16 games on the road. Every road arena is a tough matchup. However, when 8 of those 12 teams made the playoffs last season, it’s even tougher. Miami benefits from plenty of home games during the winter’s coldest months, but that does mean their season is bookended by a few long road trips.
Miami Heat Odds
The Heat have a win total of 45.5 wins. And considering their lack of regular season success, it is not surprising to see the Eastern Conference champions projected for such a low total. Both years they made the Finals they had fewer wins than this total, and they come in with the 9th best odds, at +2000 to win the championship. Considering the 50.5-win 76ers have longer odds to win the championship, it is very clear how the oddsmakers expect this season to go. The in-season tournament is an interesting avenue to explore, as the Heat may be able to flex their clutch muscles earlier in the season, which could spark a regular season push. It will be difficult to emerge from Group B, as the Bucks and Knicks will give Miami all they can handle. However, the +290 odds attached to their advancement are quite tempting.
2023-24 Season Predictions
The Miami Heat missed out on the Damian Lillard sweepstakes and will pay the price this season. At 33 years old, Butler is already seeing his body slow down, and I don’t expect him to play anything close to all 82 games this season. When he inevitably sits out, the bulk of the scoring will fall on the shoulders of Adebayo, who has proven he isn’t consistent enough to lead this team. In the regular season, the Heat will fall well short of their win total, as I’m calling for a 39-43 season in Miami. The odds attached to them missing the playoffs are a juicy +575, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them do so for the first time since 2019. The odds are not long enough for a wager to be profitable on this aging core, and I will be fading the Heat this season. The ceiling for other teams in the +2000 range is far higher than Miami’s, and this will be the beginning of the end of an era in Miami.
NBA Futures
Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
NBA Championship 2023-24
NBA Champion
Milwaukee Bucks +380
Denver Nuggets +600
Boston Celtics +400
Phoenix Suns +650
Golden State Warriors +1200
Los Angeles Lakers +1200
Miami Heat +2300
Los Angeles Clippers +2200
Philadelphia 76ers +2300
Dallas Mavericks +2500
Memphis Grizzlies +3300
Cleveland Cavaliers +4000
Sacramento Kings +5000
New Orleans Pelicans +5000
New York Knicks +5000
Minnesota Timberwolves +7500
Atlanta Hawks +8000
Oklahoma City Thunder +8000
Brooklyn Nets +10000
Toronto Raptors +10000
San Antonio Spurs +12500
Chicago Bulls +20000
Portland Trail Blazers +25000
Utah Jazz +25000
Indiana Pacers +30000
Orlando Magic +35000
Houston Rockets +40000
Detroit Pistons +50000
Charlotte Hornets +50000
Washington Wizards +75000
Eastern Conference 2023-24
Eastern Conference Winner
Milwaukee Bucks +155
Boston Celtics +175
Philadelphia 76ers +1100
Miami Heat +900
Cleveland Cavaliers +1100
New York Knicks +1600
Atlanta Hawks +2500
Brooklyn Nets +4000
Toronto Raptors +4500
Chicago Bulls +7000
Orlando Magic +12500
Indiana Pacers +12500
Detroit Pistons +25000
Charlotte Hornets +25000
Washington Wizards +35000
