The Minnesota Timberwolves were bounced from the opening round of the postseason for the second year in a row and are still in search of their first series win since 2004. In a competitive Western Conference, the Timberwolves will need to be at their best if they expect to remain competitive with the perennial heavyweights.
Offseason Recap
The Timberwolves had a very quiet offseason, as their biggest move was re-signing Anthony Edwards to a 5-year, $206 million dollar contract. The former 1st overall draft pick is still just 22 years old and has seen his stats gradually improve throughout his career. He posted a career high in PPG (24.6), Assists (4.4) and FG percentage (46%) last season. And entering his 4th year in the league, he will be eager to secure tangible success in the NBA.
Shake Milton will be a fun signing in Minnesota, as the former 76er will provide depth in the backcourt and is always capable of providing a spark off the bench. The Timberwolves elected to run things back with last year’s squad. And considering D’Angelo Russell was exported at the trade deadline in exchange for Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and picks, this is the first offseason where the Timberwolves can evaluate their talent and then make decisions about their future.
Season Expectations
Minnesota is stuck in a tough position, as they are clearly too good to tank but also lack the bonafide superstar talent to win a championship. Edwards is developing into quite the talent, but the young Atlanta native is still very rough around the edges and can lack the focus needed to succeed. The aging group of veterans comprising the rest of the starting lineup, including a 31-year-old Rudy Gobert and a 35-year-old Mike Conley, can instill wisdom in the young man, but they still lack the talented depth to make a playoff push. Gobert has flaws of his own, as while he is a menace defensively, he doesn’t have the offensive game to be competitive at both ends of the court. Their win total of 43.5 wins puts them in a tie for 10th place in the West, as it is looking increasingly likely the Timberwolves short tenure out of the basement is coming to a swift conclusion.
Schedule Breakdown
The Timberwolves open up the season with 5 of their first 7 games at home, before heading out to an early season West Coast swing. The veteran core of Minnesota will be envious of the players who get to spend the holidays with their families, as several road games over the holiday period will prevent any serious unwinding. The most daunting section of their schedule is with 15 games to go, they go on a tough 6-game road trip. Three games in five nights against the Lakers, Clippers, and Cavaliers may go a long way in determining if this team will be playing meaningful April basketball.
Minnesota Timberwolves Odds
There are a lot of options with how to attack the Timberwolves this season. Their 43.5-game win total has them sitting in the bottom half of the West. However, if they can finish above .500, they will undoubtedly be participating in the play-in tournament. They’ve finished with 44+ wins in just 2 of the last 18 seasons, and the Timberwolves fan base will be eager to see a little bit of sustained success from their NBA team. They are almost 50/50 to make the postseason, as there are -130 odds attached to their qualification, and +110 odds for them to miss the playoffs. The plus money on them missing the playoffs is quite tempting, as it appears likely that the best case scenario is they will find themselves in 9th or 10th place and have to win two straight to qualify. The odds for them to win the championship is +7000, and they are +2200 to take home the in-season tournament. It’s difficult to justify a bet on either of those, as they are stuck in a group with the Warriors, Kings, Thunder, and Spurs for the tournament, and will be hard pressed to sweep those games. The payout is there for Minnesota, but it feels very unlikely to see them do anything meaningful this season.
2023-24 Season Predictions
I don’t have any faith in the Timberwolves to have a successful season and see them coming in the 10th-13th range in the West. Aside from Edwards, the Timberwolves don’t have any bonafide talent on their roster, and their bench is even more depleted. Other Western Conference teams with similar win totals such as the Lakers (45.5), Thunder (44.5), Mavericks (44.5), and Pelicans (43.5) are all far more well-rounded than the Timberwolves, and it is difficult to argue that Minnesota will be able to keep pace. I predict a 34-48 record for the Timberwolves and for them to miss the playoffs by a significant margin. The +110 odds available for them to miss the playoffs are too good to pass up, and I would stay far away from any sort of positive Timberwolves future.
NBA Futures
Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
NBA Championship 2023-24
NBA Champion
Milwaukee Bucks +380
Denver Nuggets +600
Boston Celtics +400
Phoenix Suns +650
Golden State Warriors +1200
Los Angeles Lakers +1200
Miami Heat +2300
Los Angeles Clippers +2200
Philadelphia 76ers +2300
Dallas Mavericks +2500
Memphis Grizzlies +3300
Cleveland Cavaliers +4000
Sacramento Kings +5000
New Orleans Pelicans +5000
New York Knicks +5000
Minnesota Timberwolves +7500
Atlanta Hawks +8000
Oklahoma City Thunder +8000
Brooklyn Nets +10000
Toronto Raptors +10000
San Antonio Spurs +12500
Chicago Bulls +20000
Portland Trail Blazers +25000
Utah Jazz +25000
Indiana Pacers +30000
Orlando Magic +35000
Houston Rockets +40000
Detroit Pistons +50000
Charlotte Hornets +50000
Washington Wizards +75000
Western Conference 2023-24
Western Conference Winner
Denver Nuggets +250
Phoenix Suns +350
Golden State Warriors +550
Los Angeles Lakers +750
L.A. Clippers +950
Dallas Mavericks +1200
Memphis Grizzlies +1400
Sacramento Kings +2200
New Orleans Pelicans +2800
Oklahoma City Thunder +3500
Minnesota Timberwolves +4000
Houston Rockets +10000
Utah Jazz +10000
San Antonio Spurs +10000
Portland Trail Blazers +15000
