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Miami (20-16) at Minnesota (23-13)
- When: Jan 6 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- TV: NBC/Peacock
Miami vs Minnesota Preview & Prediction
Spread: Minnesota -6.0
Moneyline: Minnesota (-240)
Total: 238.0
Miami Heat Betting Outlook
Miami heads into Minneapolis playing confident basketball despite missing one of its primary scoring options for weeks. The Heat have won five of their last six games and are coming off a convincing road win over New Orleans, continuing a stretch where effort and execution have outweighed star power.
The looming storyline is the possible return of Tyler Herro. Miami has listed him as questionable, and even if he suits up, expectations should be tempered. Returning from a toe injury usually requires rhythm and timing, especially for a high usage shooter. Miami has clearly found an offensive groove without him, leaning more heavily on ball movement, spacing, and aggressive downhill attacks.
Norman Powell has taken full advantage of the increased responsibility, becoming the focal point of the offense. His scoring pace has been consistent, and Miami has leaned into faster possessions when Powell gets hot early. Bam Adebayo remains the interior anchor, but the Heat’s recent success has been driven by guard play and efficient perimeter scoring.
From a betting perspective, Miami games have leaned higher scoring than expected due to pace increases and defensive lapses in transition. As road underdogs, the Heat are dangerous if they can keep this game competitive early.
Miami Player Prop Pick: Norman Powell over points
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Outlook
Minnesota enters this matchup as a six point favorite and looks well positioned to control the tempo at home. The Timberwolves already beat Miami a few days ago, and that win came from disciplined defense, physical play, and a strong start that forced Miami into catch up mode.
Anthony Edwards continues to perform at an elite level, combining efficiency with volume scoring. When Edwards attacks early, Minnesota’s offense flows naturally and creates secondary looks for shooters and cutters. Julius Randle provides consistent interior scoring and rebounding, while Jaden McDaniels adds balance on both ends of the floor.
Minnesota’s defense tightens at home, and their ability to switch and contest shots makes them difficult to exploit when locked in. With Miami potentially reintegrating Herro, Minnesota could benefit from any early miscommunication or hesitation from the Heat offense.
The Timberwolves missing Terrence Shannon Jr. slightly affects depth, but it does not significantly impact their rotation or game plan. Minnesota’s strength lies with its starters, and they should have an edge in physicality and shot creation.
Minnesota Player Prop Pick: Jaden McDaniels over points
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
Minnesota is favored by 6.0 with the total set at 238.0, which signals an expectation of pace and offensive efficiency. Miami’s recent scoring trend supports a higher total, but Minnesota’s ability to build early leads at home gives them the advantage against the spread.
If Herro plays, expect some offensive spark but also potential rust. Minnesota’s consistency and edge in shot creation should prevail over four quarters.
Final Score: Minnesota 122, Miami 113
Lean: Minnesota -6.0
Total: Under 238.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
