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Miami (12-2) at Ole Miss (13-1)
- When: Jan 8 2026, 7:30 PM
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
- Where to watch: ESPN
(10) Miami vs (6) Ole Miss Preview & Prediction
Spread: Miami -3.5
Moneyline: Miami (-174)
Total: 52.0
Miami Hurricanes Betting Breakdown
Miami has turned this College Football Playoff into a full scale shock tour. Entering the field as the final at large team, the Hurricanes have advanced by doing the one thing that travels in January, defense. Miami has completely dictated both CFP games with physicality, discipline, and relentless pressure up front.
The Hurricanes shut down Texas A&M in the opening round, then followed it with another convincing win over Ohio State. The common thread has been dominance at the line of scrimmage. Miami’s defensive front has overwhelmed protection schemes, collapsing pockets and forcing quarterbacks into rushed decisions. Their pass rush has been especially lethal, piling up sacks at an elite rate.
Offensively, Miami has leaned heavily on a downhill rushing attack. When the Hurricanes establish the run, they control tempo and limit possessions, which fits perfectly with their defensive identity. They do not need explosive offense when the defense is dictating field position and momentum.
From a betting perspective, Miami being favored by 3.5 reflects respect for that defensive consistency. If Miami controls the trenches again, they are well positioned to cover a short number in a lower scoring semifinal.
Miami Player Prop Pick: Mark Fletcher Jr over 96.5 rushing yards – Miami leans on the run to control tempo. Fletcher’s volume stays high when protecting leads and managing clock.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Breakdown
Ole Miss has taken a very different path to this stage, relying on offensive firepower and resilience. The Rebels dismantled Tulane with ease before pulling off a dramatic comeback win against Georgia, showing composure and explosiveness when it mattered most.
Despite coaching changes and uncertainty, Ole Miss has remained focused. The offense thrives on tempo, spacing, and aggressive passing concepts. When the quarterback is protected, Ole Miss can attack every level of the field and force defenses to defend sideline to sideline.
The biggest challenge for Ole Miss is dealing with Miami’s pressure. Protecting the quarterback and avoiding negative plays will be critical. Ole Miss must also hold up against a physical rushing attack, an area that has been inconsistent defensively this season.
As an underdog, Ole Miss brings volatility. If the Rebels can score early and force Miami to play faster than it prefers, they can flip the script. If they fall behind and allow Miami to dictate pace, covering becomes much more difficult.
Ole Miss Player Prop Pick: Trinidad Chambliss over 267.5 passing yards – Ole Miss will throw to stay competitive. Chambliss’ attempts rise when the Rebels play from behind.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
Miami is favored by 3.5 with the total set at 52.5. This matchup features a classic contrast of styles, Miami’s defense and run control versus Ole Miss’s passing aggression.
In a semifinal setting, defense and trench play usually decide outcomes. Miami’s ability to pressure the quarterback and shorten games gives them the edge. Ole Miss will land some punches, but sustained drives will be hard to come by.
Final Score: Miami 27, Ole Miss 23
Lean: Miami -3.5
Total: Under 52.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
