Michigan (26-9) vs Texas A&M (23-10)
- When: Mar 22 2025, 5:15 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Tournament Betting Breakdown: Texas A&M vs. Michigan
Spread: Texas A&M -3.0 | Total: 141.0
Region: South (Second Round)
Michigan Wolverines (26-9 SU, 17-16-2 ATS)
Seed: No. 5 | Conference: Big Ten
Michigan is riding a wave of momentum after stunning the Big Ten and capturing the conference tournament title, followed by a gritty win over UC San Diego in Thursday’s first-round game. That victory marked the Wolverines’ fifth high-leverage contest in just over a week, and now they face the challenge of staying fresh both mentally and physically against a rested Texas A&M squad.
The Wolverines survived the opening round despite foul trouble to their top scorer Vladislav Goldin (16.6 PPG), with fellow 7-footer Danny Wolf stepping up defensively to seal a 68-65 win. However, questions remain about Michigan’s ability to hold up in a short turnaround, especially at altitude in the West.
Michigan’s size could be an asset, but their vulnerability on the glass — especially giving up second-chance points — poses a serious problem against the NCAA’s top offensive rebounding team. The Wolverines are also turnover-prone, which is a red flag against a Texas A&M team that thrives on applying pressure.
Key Stat: Michigan has allowed 12+ offensive boards in three of their last four games.
Texas A&M Aggies (23-10 SU, 19-14 ATS)
Seed: No. 4 | Conference: SEC
The Aggies enter Saturday with a significant edge in rest and preparation, having played just one game since last weekend. They quietly handled their business in the opening round and now have a golden opportunity to reach the Sweet 16.
Texas A&M’s foundation lies in two things: suffocating perimeter defense and relentless rebounding. Despite not having a traditional 7-footer, they lead the country in offensive boards per game (16.0) and are fifth overall in total rebounds (41.1). That’s trouble for a Michigan team already stretched thin by fatigue and inconsistent rebounding efforts.
Offensively, the Aggies lean on dynamic guards Wade Taylor IV (15.7 PPG) and Zhuric Phelps (13.8 PPG). Their backcourt could thrive against a Michigan defense that has been susceptible to turnovers and lacks lateral quickness.
Key Matchup to Watch: Texas A&M’s pressure defense vs. Michigan’s ball-handling — if the Wolverines can’t protect the rock, this could get ugly late.
Betting Trends & Prediction
Michigan has covered just 3 of its last 8 games when playing on short rest.
Texas A&M is 7-1 against teams Michigan has also faced this season, while Michigan is 5-4 against that same group.
Under is 5-1 in the Aggies’ last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
With rest, rebounding, and defensive pressure on their side, Texas A&M looks like the more balanced and better-positioned team in this matchup. Michigan’s recent run has been impressive, but the schedule catches up to them here.
Final Score Prediction:
Texas A&M 70, Michigan 65
Best Bet:
Texas A&M -3.0
Under 141.0 – Fatigue + defense could slow the tempo late.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
