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Minnesota (1-2) at Phoenix (2-1)
- When: Sep 28 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ESPN
WNBA Playoff Clash: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
Spread: Phoenix -4.5 | Total: 156.0
Minnesota Lynx: Facing Elimination Without Collier
The Minnesota Lynx enter Game 4 of the semifinals in survival mode, but their uphill climb just got steeper. Star forward Napheesa Collier (ankle) is sidelined, and coach Cheryl Reeve is suspended after her post-Game 3 outburst. That leaves Minnesota needing to rely heavily on Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride to keep their season alive.
The Lynx have been resilient all year, winning a franchise-record 34 games and rarely losing more than two in a row. But now, without their MVP runner-up, their offense has dipped, averaging nearly nine fewer points when Collier sits. If their shooting woes continue (just 27% from deep in the series), they’ll struggle to force a decisive Game 5.
Phoenix Mercury: Underdogs Embracing the Fight
Phoenix has taken control of the series with back-to-back wins, including a 20-point comeback in Game 2 and a gritty finish in Game 3. Alyssa Thomas nearly notched a playoff triple-double last outing, Satou Sabally poured in 23 points, and Kahleah Copper has been a consistent spark, with two straight 20-point games.
The Mercury are proving their offseason overhaul turned them into legitimate contenders. Once dismissed as preseason long shots, they’re now one win away from their first Finals appearance since 2021. With depth, physicality, and confidence, Phoenix has all the momentum heading into Sunday’s clash.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
The line favors Phoenix by -4.5, which feels justified given Minnesota’s loss of Collier and Phoenix’s recent dominance. The Lynx are in desperation mode, but without their star, it’s hard to trust their consistency. The total of 156 suggests a moderately high-scoring matchup, though Minnesota’s shorthanded offense could drag the pace.
Phoenix covers the spread and advances to the Finals, while Minnesota’s season ends in heartbreak.
Score Prediction: Phoenix 83, Minnesota 75
Best Bet: Phoenix -4.5
Total: Over 156.0
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
