Mississippi (24-11) vs Michigan State (29-6)
- When: Mar 28 2025, 7:09 PM
- Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Mississippi vs Michigan State Sweet 16 Betting Preview and Prediction
Michigan State (-3.5) vs Ole Miss | Total: 143.5
Michigan State Spartans: Searching for Another Deep March Run
Michigan State has grown immensely since its early season stumble against Kansas in the Champions Classic. Once unranked and unproven, Tom Izzo’s crew enters Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup with momentum, confidence, and experience on their side. Sitting at 29-6, the Spartans have now reached their highest win total since 2018-19 — the last time they got past the Sweet 16.
Izzo has retooled the lineup with key changes that have paid off down the stretch. Jaxon Kohler and Jase Richardson have brought new life to the starting five, while the depth has shown up big in March. Tre Holloman has poured in 14 points off the bench in both tournament wins, giving MSU a needed spark. Leading scorer Jaden Akins is averaging 13.5 PPG in the Big Dance, though Michigan State’s 3-point shooting (just 31%) still lags behind top-tier teams.
The Spartans will have to step it up defensively against a red-hot Ole Miss team. Michigan State is battle-tested, disciplined, and built for March. Tom Izzo’s 16th Sweet 16 appearance speaks for itself. Expect a grind-it-out tempo with physical defense and rebounding setting the tone.
Ole Miss Rebels: On Fire and Playing with House Money
This is only the second Sweet 16 appearance in Ole Miss basketball history — and they’re making the most of it. The Rebels (24-11) have been shooting the lights out in the tournament, hitting nearly 49% from beyond the arc and 58% overall in their 91-78 dismantling of Iowa State.
Sean Pedulla continues to be the engine for Ole Miss, averaging 20 points per game in the tournament while leading the team with 83 made triples on the year. The Rebels play fast, spread the floor, and have the kind of offensive firepower that can burn any defense, even Izzo’s.
Head coach Chris Beard is no stranger to March success, and he’s got his group believing. Ole Miss won’t be intimidated by the Spartan mystique — they’re here to win, not just hang around.
Betting Prediction
The Spartans have the edge in pedigree and coaching experience, but this matchup is much closer than the spread suggests. Ole Miss is locked in offensively, and if they stay hot from deep, Michigan State’s perimeter defense will be tested all night.
Expect a battle between contrasting styles — Michigan State’s physicality vs. Ole Miss’ offensive fluidity. If the Rebels can control tempo and continue their sharp shooting, an upset isn’t out of the question.
Pick: Ole Miss (+145)
Lean: Over 143.5 – If Ole Miss controls the pace, the points will follow.
Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 75, Michigan State 72
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
