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Missouri State (7-5) at Arkansas State (6-6)
- When: Dec 18 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, TX
- Where to watch: ESPN2
- Last Meeting: Arkansas State 70-7, September 19th, 2015
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Missouri State -2.0
Moneyline: Missouri State (-125)
Total: 54.5
Missouri State Bears
New Coach Who Dis Energy
Missouri State did not just crash the FBS party this season. They kicked the door down ate the snacks and somehow walked out with a bowl invite. Seven wins in year one at this level is impressive. Seven wins followed by your head coach leaving before the bowl is less impressive and way more awkward.
Ryan Beard packed his bags for Coastal Carolina which means the Bears are now being coached by interim boss Nick Petrino. Yes that Petrino family tree. Nick has been calling plays for years and now gets the headset with no long term pressure other than winning a bowl game and not accidentally starting a group chat titled audition tape.
The offense is still legit. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark throws it everywhere and does it efficiently. Missouri State loves to push tempo stretch defenses and turn bowl games into track meets. The issue is consistency. When things go right they score fast. When things go wrong the defense gets stuck on the field wondering why everyone looks tired in December.
Missouri State offense shows up early but depth and focus remain the big question.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Same Coach Same Chaos Slightly Better Results
Arkansas State arrives with a familiar vibe. Solid offense questionable defense and a coach who treats bowl games like a personal resume line. Butch Jones has been here before and his team plays like it.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor is the engine and the transmission. He throws it a ton runs when needed and keeps games stressful until the final minute because apparently that is the brand. Arkansas State nearly gave away their bowl ticket in the finale before winning it at the last possible second because drama builds character.
The Red Wolves can score from anywhere and do not panic in close games. That matters when spreads are short and totals are high. They also have the mental edge of being here before while Missouri State is still figuring out where the Xbox Bowl trophy room might be.
Gambling Breakdown
This line is telling you everything. Missouri State -2 is basically saying pick who blinks first. With a total sitting at 54.5 Bovada oddsmakers expect points and probably some defensive confusion.
Missouri State brings motivation chaos and nothing to lose energy. Arkansas State brings experience stability and a quarterback who has seen worse than this.
Final Prediction
Arkansas State survives the chaos wins late and sends Missouri State home proud but annoyed.
Expect points early nerves late and at least one moment where both fan bases yell at the same time for very different reasons.
Final Score: Arkansas State 31, Missouri State 27
Lean: Arkansas State (+105)
Total: Over 54.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
