Mt. St. Mary’s (23-12) vs Duke (31-3)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 2:50 PM
- Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s
The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils are set to open their NCAA Tournament campaign against No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s in the East Region first round on Friday in Raleigh, North Carolina. While Duke is heavily favored, the question is whether Mount St. Mary’s can keep it competitive enough to cover the massive spread or if the Blue Devils will dominate start to finish.
Duke Blue Devils: Tournament Experience & Star Power
Record: 31-3
Last Game: ACC Tournament Champions (defeated Louisville)
Key Strength: Elite defense & balanced scoring
Duke enters riding an 11-game winning streak and locking in its 15th No. 1 regional seed in program history. The biggest storyline heading into this matchup has been the health of freshman star Cooper Flagg, who missed Duke’s last two-and-a-half games after suffering an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
After days of uncertainty, the Blue Devils confirmed Thursday that Flagg will be available. However, his minutes might be limited as head coach Jon Scheyer looks to keep him fresh for the later rounds. Flagg leads Duke in points (18.9 PPG), rebounds (7.5 RPG), assists (4.1 APG), steals (1.5 SPG), and blocks (1.2 BPG), making him an essential piece for a deep run.
Outside of Flagg, Duke has plenty of other weapons, including ACC Tournament MVP Kon Knueppel (14.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and veteran Tyrese Proctor, who will be making his third NCAA Tournament appearance.
The Blue Devils are also playing in Raleigh, but their history in the Lenovo Center is mixed, posting a 12-9 record all-time in the arena. That includes a 2-1 record in NCAA Tournament games, with the lone loss coming in a first-round upset to Mercer in 2014.
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers: Looking to Make History
Record: 23-12
Last Game: First Four win vs. American, 83-72
Key Strength: Balanced scoring & recent momentum
Mount St. Mary’s earned its shot at Duke by knocking off American 83-72 in the First Four on Wednesday night. It was the Mountaineers’ fifth straight victory, and their first time breaking the 70-point mark in their last six games.
Jedy Cordilia and Dola Adebayo led the way with 22 points each, and the team showed impressive offensive efficiency after struggling to score for much of the season.
The Mountaineers aren’t backing down, despite the daunting task of facing a No. 1 seed.
“It doesn’t matter how big they are or how they’re ranked. They still have to tie their shoes just like me,” said Adebayo.
Mount St. Mary’s has been here before, winning a First Four game in 2017 before falling to No. 1 seed Villanova. However, Duke is 14-0 all-time against No. 16 seeds, meaning an upset is highly unlikely.
Betting Prediction & Total
Pick: Mount St. Mary’s +32.0
Total: Over 140.5
Duke will undoubtedly control this game, but a 32-point spread is a tough cover in a first-round NCAA Tournament game. The Blue Devils might limit Cooper Flagg’s minutes, which could keep the score within range for Mount St. Mary’s to cover late.
The total is another key angle here. Mount St. Mary’s has been playing faster in recent games, and Duke’s high-efficiency offense should put up plenty of points. With both teams likely scoring in the 60+ range, the Over 140.5 looks like the best value play.
Final Score Prediction: Duke 86, Mount St. Mary’s 60
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
