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NC State (20-13) vs Texas (18-14)
- When: Mar 17 2026, 9:15 PM
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TruTV
(11) NC State vs (11) Texas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Texas -1.0
Moneyline: Texas (-114)
Total: 158.5
Right then, here we are. Two sides stumbling into March Madness like lads leaving the pub at closing time, yet somehow still alive. Texas sits as a narrow 1-point favorite with a lofty total of 158.5, which tells you one thing straight away. Points will be flying, discipline optional.
Texas Longhorns Betting Breakdown
Texas arrives in Dayton having lost five of their last six, which is not exactly the form you’d brag about at the dinner table. Still, talent has never been the issue.
Dailyn Swain is the heartbeat of this side, leading the team across the board with 17.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 108 assists and 55 steals. The lad does everything short of selling tickets outside the arena.
Earlier this season, Texas handled NC State in a 102-97 shootout, shooting a scorching 55.8% from the field and drilling 16 three-pointers. Jordan Pope dropped 28 points in that one, and if Texas finds that offensive rhythm again, they will fancy their chances.
The key question is simple. Which Texas shows up? The sharp shooting side or the one that forgets how to win close games.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Breakdown
Now, NC State are not exactly strutting in either. They’ve dropped seven of their last nine, which suggests confidence might be somewhere hiding under the couch.
That said, this team can absolutely score. In that earlier clash, Quadir Copeland had 28 points, Ven-Allen Lubin added 23, and Paul McNeil Jr. chipped in 20. When they get rolling, they can turn any game into a track meet.
The issue has been consistency and discipline. It has been mentioned, questioned and likely shouted about in practice. But in a one-game scenario, all that matters is showing up for 40 minutes.
If NC State cleans up the mistakes, they are more than capable of flipping this result.
Expert Picks & Final Score Prediction
This line is razor thin for a reason. Neither team inspires full confidence, but both bring serious offensive firepower.
Given the history between these two and the current total, this shapes up as another high scoring affair. Texas has already proven they can exploit this matchup, and their star power gives them the slightest edge.
It won’t be pretty. It will be chaotic. But Texas should find a way.
Final Score: Texas 82, NC State 78
Lean: Texas Longhorns -1.0
Total: Over 158.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
