- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
New England (2-2-0) at Buffalo (4-0-0)
- When: Oct 5 2025, 8:20 PM
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Where to watch: NBC
- Last Meeting: NE 23-16, January 5th, 2025
New England vs Buffalo Preview & Prediction
Spread: Buffalo -7.5
Moneyline: Buffalo (-500)
Total: 49.5
New England Patriots Betting Outlook
After years of wandering in the post-Brady desert, New England is slowly regaining its competitive edge under rookie head coach Mike Vrabel. Fresh off a 42-13 thrashing of Carolina, the Pats are finally showing flashes of consistency and they’ll need every bit of it to compete with an AFC powerhouse in primetime.
The offense is getting production at all levels, but all eyes will be on Stefon Diggs, who faces his former squad for the first time in Buffalo since leaving. He’s become a stabilizing force in New England’s passing attack, and you can expect a high-volume day in a familiar setting.
Player Prop to Watch: Stefon Diggs Over 46.5 Receiving Yards – With added motivation and a likely negative game script, this is a tempting over play.
New England’s real test will be containing a red-hot Bills squad in a stadium where they’ve been nearly invincible. For Vrabel, whose personal history with Buffalo includes some tough road losses, this one’s about proving his team is ready for the next step. But the matchup, and the spread, suggest they’ll need to be near-perfect.
Buffalo Bills Betting Outlook
Buffalo comes in undefeated, having already knocked off each of its AFC East rivals at least once. They’re 14-0 in their last regular season home games and are being treated like the modern Patriots of the division. Coach Sean McDermott has kept the team humble, but the results speak volumes.
Quarterback Josh Allen has led an efficient, if occasionally inconsistent, offense but it’s the defense that remains a concern, particularly against the run. That said, they’ve done more than enough to outscore opponents and have shown an ability to make key stops late.
The Bills’ biggest storyline? Facing former teammate Diggs, who left town under some tension. But McDermott praised the receiver’s comeback from injury, showing no signs of ill will. Expect the Bills’ defense to take that matchup personally.
Buffalo will debut their “Cold Front” all-white alternate uniforms under the lights, and fans have been encouraged to match in the stands. This is a statement spot.
Player Prop to Watch: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – He’s hit this number in three of four games and has a history of carving up the Patriots.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
New England may be improving, but this is a steep step up. Buffalo’s home dominance and divisional control make them a tough fade, especially in prime time. If the Patriots fall behind early, it could snowball.
Buffalo’s firepower at home is too much for a still-developing Patriots squad. They cover and push the total slightly over.
Final Score: Bills 31, Patriots 20
Lean: Buffalo -7.5
Total: Over 49.5
- NFL Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
