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New York (24-15) at Phoenix (24-14)
- When: Aug 30 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: NBA TV
New York vs Phoenix – WNBA Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Phoenix -1.5 | Total: 166.5
Phoenix Mercury Betting Outlook
The Mercury enter Saturday night’s matchup with momentum on their side. They’ve won three straight and five of their last six, surging into a tie with Atlanta for third in the WNBA standings. MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas has been the heartbeat of this run, stacking up triple-doubles like they’re coupons at the grocery store. She’s delivered seven this season, including six in her last 11 games, and has been a near lock to flirt with another every time she steps on the court.
Phoenix’s defense has also shown bite. In their latest win over Chicago, they forced 17 steals and swatted 11 shots, season highs. Kahleah Copper continues to shine as the go-to scorer, dropping 28 points on her birthday to pace the Mercury. With home-court advantage for the first round on the line, Phoenix is primed to lean on Thomas’ all-around brilliance and Copper’s scoring to handle business.
Player Prop to Watch (Phoenix): Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Rebounds — given her near triple-double averages against New York, the boards should keep piling up.
New York Liberty Betting Outlook
The defending champs don’t look like the same powerhouse right now, mainly due to injuries and illnesses clouding their rotation. Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Natasha Cloud all sat out the Liberty’s last outing and all remain questionable for Saturday. That trio accounts for New York’s scoring engine, rebounding core, and floor leadership. The Liberty are 10-0 this season when Stewart, Ionescu, and Jones all finish games together, so their availability could swing the outcome dramatically.
Breanna Stewart is still working her way back after missing 13 games with a knee injury. Even on a minutes restriction, she’s looked solid, notching 12 points and nine rebounds against Washington. Emma Meesseman has also stepped up with her versatile play, filling the stat sheet with scoring, rebounding, and passing. If the Liberty are forced to go shorthanded again, Stewart will have to shoulder more of the offensive and defensive responsibility.
Player Prop to Watch (New York): Breanna Stewart Over 18.5 Points — with Ionescu and Jones uncertain, expect Stewart to get a green light offensively.
Prediction & Betting Angle
The line has Phoenix favored by 1.5 points, with the total set at 166.5. Bovada Oddsmakers clearly view this as a coin-flip matchup, heavily dependent on New York’s injury situation. Phoenix is hot and has already taken two of three meetings against the Liberty this season. Meanwhile, New York is limping into this matchup at less than full strength, and relying on Stewart alone isn’t ideal against a team as balanced as the Mercury.
Phoenix’s defense, combined with Thomas’ ability to control pace and create mismatches, should be the difference-maker. If New York’s stars all suit up, it’s a nail-biter. If not, the Mercury have the edge.
Best Bet: Phoenix -1.5
Toral: Over 166.5
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix 87, New York 82
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
