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New York (1-1) at Phoenix (1-1)
- When: Sep 19 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ESPN2
New York vs Phoenix – WNBA Playoffs Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Phoenix -2.5 | Total: 156.0
The WNBA first-round series is down to a winner-take-all clash as the Phoenix Mercury host the defending champion New York Liberty in Game 3. With the Minnesota Lynx waiting in the semifinals, both teams face a high-pressure spot.
New York Liberty Outlook
The Liberty looked rattled in Game 2, shooting just 30.2% from the field while surrendering 25 points off turnovers. Breanna Stewart’s MCL sprain clearly hampered her as she finished with just six points, the lowest postseason output of her career. Sabrina Ionescu couldn’t pick up the slack, shooting 3-for-13 with nine points.
The Liberty have the experience edge, but if their stars aren’t producing, depth issues quickly show. In a must-win road environment, they’ll need Stewart closer to full strength and Ionescu to rediscover her shooting touch.
Player Prop Pick – Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 Made Threes. If New York has any chance, her perimeter shooting must heat up.
Phoenix Mercury Outlook
The Mercury flipped the series with defense and balance in Game 2, holding New York scoreless for the first six minutes of the third quarter. Five players hit double figures, led by Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas with 15 each. Phoenix shot nearly 48% overall after struggling badly in Game 1.
Kahleah Copper’s energy and DeWanna Bonner’s playoff poise provide Phoenix with the tools to close the series at home. With their defense clicking, the Mercury have the edge in momentum heading into Friday.
Player Prop Pick – Mercury: Kahleah Copper Over 16.5 Points. Her scoring punch and transition play make her Phoenix’s X-factor.
Prediction & Betting Angle
This has been a back-and-forth series, but Phoenix looked far more composed in Game 2. If Stewart isn’t close to 100%, the Liberty could be in trouble. Expect the Mercury’s defense and balanced attack to carry them.
Best Bet: Phoenix -2.5
Toral: Over 156.0
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix 82, New York 76
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
