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North Carolina (6-0) vs Michigan State (6-0)
- When: Nov 27 2025, 5:30 PM
- Where: Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FL, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
(16) North Carolina vs (11) Michigan State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan State -1.5
Moneyline: Michigan State (-125)
Total: 151.5
Michigan State Spartans Betting Breakdown
Michigan State arrives at the Beach Division title game looking like a team that wants everyone to stop complimenting them immediately. Tom Izzo keeps insisting his 11th ranked Spartans are still a mystery, which is classic Izzo translation for: We look good, but do not jinx us.
The Spartans are undefeated through six games with resume building victories over Arkansas and Kentucky, but Izzo says he will not believe anything until roughly 10 to 12 games from now. Basically, the man refuses to enjoy anything before New Year’s.
Michigan State cruised past East Carolina with an 89 to 56 win thanks to crisp ball movement and the steady command of Jeremy Fears. He entered Tuesday leading the entire country in assists and continues to run the offense like he has been doing this for a decade.
The frontcourt is delivering too. Jaxon Kohler has been a nightly double double threat, Coen Carr keeps attacking the rim like it owes him money, and Carson Cooper provides a steady presence in the paint.
With Michigan State favored by a small number, bettors backing the Spartans are essentially gambling that Izzo’s balance and depth travel well to Fort Myers.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Breakdown
North Carolina walks into this matchup undefeated at 6 and 0, armed with size, skill, and a freshman who is already playing like a future lottery pick. Caleb Wilson has been a force, averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds while making everything look unfairly easy for a newcomer.
Henri Veesaar, the Arizona transfer, has slipped seamlessly into Hubert Davis’ system, providing scoring, boards, and interior toughness. Seth Trimble has also taken a noticeable leap, becoming a consistent playmaker with timely shooting and great decision making.
The Tar Heels controlled St. Bonaventure thanks to that depth and balance, something Davis says has become the backbone of this squad. And he is going to need every ounce of that against Michigan State’s physicality.
North Carolina also has recent bragging rights in the rivalry after blowing out Michigan State in last year’s NCAA Tournament. However, the Spartans did win a thriller at the Maui Invitational the season before, proving this matchup always has fireworks.
For bettors, the Tar Heels getting points may look tempting, especially with their offensive efficiency and size on the perimeter.
Prediction & Betting Angle
The line makes sense: Michigan State’s consistency vs North Carolina’s explosiveness. The total at 151.5 suggests a moderate pace, but UNC will try to break that early, forcing MSU to choose between running with them or dragging the game into the mud.
Expect momentum swings, a ton of lead changes, and at least one moment where Izzo looks like he might remove his own tie with his bare hands.
Projected to be close, physical, and fun, but the Spartans defense and guard play tilt it slightly their way.
Final Score: Michigan State 79, North Carolina 74
Lean: Michigan State -1.5
Total: Over 151.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
