North Carolina (23-13) vs Ole Miss (22-11)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 4:05 PM
- Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI, USA
- Where to watch: TNT
Game Preview
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
North Carolina -2.0 | Total: 156.0
The South Region first-round clash between No. 6 seed Ole Miss and No. 11 seed North Carolina will feature two teams eager to prove their worth on Friday. North Carolina silenced doubters with a dominant First Four win, while Ole Miss aims to capitalize on its best NCAA Tournament seeding in over two decades.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Peaking at the Right Time
Record: 23-13
Last Game: 95-68 First Four win over San Diego State
Key Strength: High-powered offense & deep shooting
North Carolina entered the tournament with controversy, as many questioned whether the Tar Heels deserved an at-large bid. However, they made a loud statement on Tuesday night, crushing San Diego State by 27 points behind 26 points from RJ Davis.
The Tar Heels have now won nine of their last 11 games, showing strong late-season momentum. They caught fire from deep in their First Four win, draining 14 three-pointers—the most in program history in an NCAA Tournament game.
North Carolina has consistently thrived when hitting 80+ points, posting a 15-3 record in such games. Their offensive firepower is led by RJ Davis (17.3 PPG, 84 three-pointers), Ian Jackson (12.3 PPG), and Seth Trimble (11.7 PPG).
Despite the impressive shooting display against San Diego State, head coach Hubert Davis remains focused on defense, rebounding, and ball security as the team’s biggest keys to success.
“It would be great if we hit 14 threes on Friday,” Davis said. “But the reason I consistently tell the team the three boxes we have to check is defense, rebounding, and taking care of the basketball. Those are the things that travel.”
North Carolina is no stranger to March Madness, making its 54th tournament appearance, second only to Kentucky.
Ole Miss Rebels: Seeking a Statement Win
Record: 22-11
Last Game: Lost to Auburn 62-57 (SEC Tournament Quarterfinals)
Key Strength: Balanced scoring attack & quality wins
Ole Miss comes into this matchup with an impressive résumé, boasting wins over No. 2 seeds Alabama and Tennessee. While they struggled with consistency down the stretch, their 10-2 record when scoring 80+ points suggests they can keep up with North Carolina if they get into a rhythm.
Head coach Chris Beard is no stranger to tournament success, taking his fourth different program to March Madness. Notably, he has never lost a first-round game, making him a coach to watch in tight matchups like this one.
Ole Miss relies on a deep offensive rotation, with Sean Pedulla (14.9 PPG, 78 three-pointers) leading the way. Five other players average at least 10.0 PPG, making the Rebels one of the more balanced teams in the field.
The biggest concern for Ole Miss is rebounding, as they’ve been outrebounded by 4.7 per game this season. Against a North Carolina team that excels on the glass, this could be a critical area that determines the outcome.
Despite the matchup challenge, Beard is confident in his squad’s preparation.
“Every member of our staff has been a part of NCAA Tournament wins and runs,” Beard said. “So we’re just trying to share our knowledge and experiences with our players.”
Betting Prediction & Total
Pick: North Carolina -2.0
Total: Over 156.0
This game should deliver plenty of offense, as both teams thrive in high-scoring affairs. North Carolina has the deeper rotation, better rebounding, and more experience on the tournament stage, which gives them a slight edge.
While Ole Miss has the ability to keep this close, their rebounding issues and occasional inconsistency make them a tough pick against a red-hot Tar Heels squad.
Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 84, Ole Miss 78
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
