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Giants at Patriots MNF Betting Breakdown and Prediction

New England vs New York odds breakdown and sharp game prediction for bettors.

(Photo by Getty Images) Drake Maye
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NY Giants (2-10-0) at New England (10-2-0)

  • When: Dec 1 2025, 8:15 PM
  • Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
  • Where to watch: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: NYG 10-7, November 26th, 2023

NY Giants vs New England Preview & Prediction

Spread: New England -7.0
Moneyline: New England (-424)
Total: 46.5

New England Patriots Betting Outlook

New England enters this game looking like a machine that refuses to slow down. The Patriots have not tasted defeat in two months and now sit at 10 wins with a soft landing spot before their bye. Still, nobody inside that locker room is acting like this is a free win.

The biggest complication is up front. Two starters from their normally dependable offensive line will be unavailable. Rookie tackle Will Campbell is now parked on injured reserve after a knee injury, and guard Jared Wilson remains out with an ankle issue. This group had practically been glued together all season, so seeing two spots shift in the same week adds a little uncertainty.

The replacements, Ben Brown and Vederian Lowe, are no strangers to action and have logged meaningful snaps in the past, so New England is not in crisis mode. Center Garrett Bradbury summed it up by saying that this team has leaned on a next man up mentality all season and is sticking to it.

Quarterback Drake Maye still wants to clean up a few moments from last week, including a failed goal line sneak that had him muttering about smelling salts and switching into bulldozer mode next time. Even so, the Patriots offense remains efficient enough and the defense continues to do the heavy lifting.

Patriots Player Prop Pick: Drake Maye over 20.5 rushing yards – With injuries on the offensive line and his tendency to extend plays, Maye should use his legs more than usual.

New York Giants Betting Outlook

The Giants sit at 2 and 10, but there has at least been a little pulse since Mike Kafka took over. They pushed Detroit to overtime last weekend before unraveling and tying an unwanted record for the most losses in a season when leading by double digits. That collapse cost defensive coordinator Shane Bowen his job, leading to Charlie Bullen taking over the defense. Expect a slightly different look this week.

The biggest storyline is the likely return of rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has been grinding through concussion protocol but practiced fully during the week. His teammates say he has prepared like someone who never missed a snap. If he is cleared, the Giants get an upgrade in mobility and decision making.

For as rough as things have been, their offensive line deserves credit. They have protected well enough that even backup Jameis Winston dodged sacks until the final play in Detroit. They have also opened lanes for a run game that sits inside the top ten, something nobody expected back in September.

Linebacker Brian Burns spoke bluntly about the defense collapsing in big moments, pointing to missed assignments and poor tackling. If they do not fix that against the Patriots, this one could get out of hand early.

Giants Player Prop Pick: WanDale Robinson over 5.5 receptions – With Dart likely returning, expect quick throws and slot usage to spike, making Robinson the most reliable volume target.

Expert Betting Outlook & NFL Prediction

New England is rolling, deeper, better coached and simply more stable. The Giants compete early but do not sustain it, especially if Dart shows rust. With the Patriots defense dictating pace and Maye mixing in legs and short throws, the line looks justified.

Final Score:  Patriots 27, Giants 17
Lean: New England -7.0
Total: 
Under 46.5 

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