NY Mets (1-1) at Houston (1-1)
- When: Mar 29 2025, 7:15 PM
- Where: Daikin Park, Houston
- Where to watch: FOX
MLB Betting Preview: Mets vs. Astros – Game 3
Moneyline: Houston -119 | Total: 9.0
The Houston Astros are slight home favorites at -119 on the moneyline, with the total sitting at 9.0 for Saturday night’s rubber match against the New York Mets — a series that has been more about patchwork rotations than full-strength lineups.
New York Mets Preview:
Despite beginning the season without key arms Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, the Mets have stitched together solid starting pitching performances. Clay Holmes opened strong in his first start since 2018, and Tylor Megill followed up with five-plus innings of one-run ball in Friday’s 3-1 victory.
Now, the Mets hand the ball to offseason pickup Griffin Canning. After a rocky 2024 (6-13, 5.19 ERA with the Angels), Canning impressed in spring training with a 1.88 ERA across four outings. Still, he brings some baggage into this matchup: he’s 0-3 with a 6.69 ERA in nine career starts against Houston and struggled in his most recent outing versus the Astros last September.
Offensively, the Mets haven’t overwhelmed, but they’ve done enough. With their rotation depleted and their lineup still adjusting, they’re playing efficient, opportunistic baseball — a formula that’s paying early dividends.
Houston Astros Preview:
The Astros are still waiting for their bats to wake up. Through two games, Houston has yet to record an extra-base hit, tallying just 10 singles total and showing an early-season lack of punch. Key offseason acquisitions like Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes have yet to deliver in big moments — both missed opportunities in the sixth inning of Friday’s loss with the bases loaded.
Houston’s manager isn’t panicking just yet, pointing to nine walks over two games as a promising sign of plate discipline that could lead to long-term offensive success. But until the power shows up, Houston will be forced to grind out low-scoring games.
On the mound, the Astros turn to sophomore standout Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53 ERA in 2024), who was one of the American League’s top rookies last season. He led all AL rookies in strikeouts per nine (10.61) and tied for the lead in total strikeouts. If he can limit walks and keep the ball in the yard, he’s a strong bounce-back candidate in this spot.
Betting Prediction:
Both teams are still getting their footing, but Houston has the edge in starting pitching with Arrighetti. The Mets have battled well, but Canning’s track record against the Astros is hard to ignore. Houston’s offense may not have popped yet, but they’re due for some hard contact — and tonight could be the breakout.
Pick: Astros ML -119
Final Score Prediction: Astros 5, Mets 3
Lean: Under 9.0 (-120) — Expect a solid outing from both starters and some early-season rust to keep the score in check.
- MLB Odds source: MYBookie Sportsbook
