NY Mets (1-2) at Miami (3-1)
- When: Mar 31 2025, 6:40 PM
- Where: loanDepot park, Miami
- Where to watch: SNY
MLB Betting Preview: Mets vs Marlins – Game 1
Moneyline: NY Mets -192 | Total: 8.5
The New York Mets head to Miami on Monday night as solid -192 moneyline favorites, looking to cool off a Marlins team that has shown an early knack for dramatic finishes. The total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderate scoring pace in a game where both teams bring some intriguing early-season narratives.
Miami Marlins Overview:
The Marlins (3-1) are coming off a wild series against Pittsburgh, winning three one-run thrillers — all in walk-off fashion. Miami walked it off twice in the ninth and once in the 12th, including Sunday’s 3-2 win that came courtesy of a Pirates throwing error and a wild pitch. They’re proving scrappy and resilient, especially in tight games, but will face a tougher test here in the form of a Mets squad desperate to wake up offensively.
Though the bats haven’t exploded, Miami’s pitching and late-game execution have carried the load. Cal Quantrill gets the nod for his Marlins debut after going 3-0 with a solid spring. However, his 4.98 ERA last season with Colorado and a 4.50 career ERA against the Mets doesn’t inspire much confidence.
New York Mets Outlook:
The Mets (1-2) come in fresh off a day of rest but eager to shake off a sluggish offensive showing in Houston, where they managed just one run after the sixth inning across the series. Newcomer Juan Soto did his part, tallying three hits and a homer, but Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor struggled in run-producing spots, combining to go 1-for-20.
The Mets will turn to lefty David Peterson, who impressed this spring with a microscopic 0.57 ERA. Peterson has had success historically against Miami, holding a 4-2 record and 2.80 ERA in nine career appearances.
Betting Analysis & Prediction:
Spread / Moneyline: The Mets being listed at -192 shows strong backing from MYBookie oddsmakers, and with Peterson’s form and track record vs. Miami, it’s justified. The Marlins’ recent success is largely situational and not sustainable against more polished teams.
Total (8.5): Miami’s offense has been more about clutch than consistency, and the Mets’ bats are due to rebound but haven’t broken out yet. This feels like a tight one early, possibly opening up late. Lean under.
Score Prediction: Mets 5, Marlins 2
Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (+120) — solid value with a pitching edge and motivated lineup.
Lean Total: Under 8.5
The Mets have too much offensive firepower to stay cold for long, and with Peterson on the mound, they’re in a strong spot to take control of this series opener.
- MLB Odds source: MYBookie Sportsbook
