- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
NY Yankees (94-68) at Toronto (94-68)
- When: Oct 4 2025, 4:08 PM
- Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Where to watch: FOX
NY Yankees vs Toronto MLB Playoff Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Toronto -126
Spread: Toronto -1.5 (+170)
Total: 8.0
New York Yankees Preview: Battle-Tested but Banged Up
Fresh off a gritty three-game sweep over Boston, the Yankees now enter the ALDS on short rest and step right into a tough environment in Toronto. New York has struggled north of the border, losing 6 of 7 at Rogers Centre during the regular season.
Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA) will take the mound in Game 1 after earning the nod over Will Warren. While Gil’s overall numbers are respectable, his career 4.34 ERA versus Toronto raises some red flags. He did shine in one 2024 outing against the Jays (1.50 ERA), but playoff pressure in a loud road park is another beast.
Aaron Judge, who has historically torched Toronto pitching, will be the key offensive piece. But with Cody Bellinger limping after Thursday’s win and the bullpen stretched, the Yankees will need to tap into their depth and avoid getting into early trouble.
If New York doesn’t get an early lead, the momentum and crowd could snowball hard against them.
Toronto Blue Jays Preview: Rested, Ready, and on a Mission
Toronto comes into the ALDS rested and hungry, clinching the AL East on the final day and earning a crucial first-round bye. They’ve had nearly a full week to reset and strategize, including some internal scrimmages to stay sharp.
Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) draws the start and carries postseason experience. He’s 2-1 vs. the Yankees this year and historically holds his own against New York (3.67 ERA in 39 appearances). But the Jays’ key to victory lies beyond just pitching.
George Springer has absolutely mashed against the Yankees all season (.348 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI in 13 games), and Toronto is 54-27 at home. The playoff demons remain real, Toronto hasn’t won a postseason game since 2016, but this year feels different.
If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can turn around his cold October track record and Bichette’s absence doesn’t hurt them too much, this Jays team could finally shake off years of frustration.
Prediction & Betting Angle
The Blue Jays’ home-field edge and extra rest give them a narrow edge. The Yankees may be riding momentum, but short rest and bullpen fatigue tip this opener slightly in Toronto’s favor, especially if Gausman can work deep into the game.
Score Prediction: Blue Jays 4, Yankees 3
Pick: Toronto (-126)
Total: Under 8.0 (-110)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
