Oklahoma City (37-8) at Golden State (23-23)
- When: Jan 29 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
- TV: ESPN
Game Preview
The Golden State Warriors host the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night, playing on the second leg of a back-to-back while the Thunder enter well-rested. With Oklahoma City favored by 10 points and the total set at 225, the matchup presents strong betting opportunities, including spreads, totals, and player props.
Golden State Warriors Analysis
Golden State pulled off a 114-103 victory over Utah on Tuesday, despite resting Stephen Curry to manage his sore knees and a lingering thumb injury. With three games in four nights, head coach Steve Kerr opted to give his star guard a breather, ensuring he’s fresh for this marquee matchup against the Thunder.
Curry has played against Oklahoma City once this season, erupting for 36 points in a Warriors road win. However, the Warriors have struggled since their hot 12-3 start, sliding out of the Western Conference’s top 10. While they found a way to win without Curry on Tuesday, they’ll need a big effort from their supporting cast to stay competitive against one of the NBA’s top teams.
Dennis Schroder stepped up in Curry’s absence, scoring 23 points, while rookie Brandin Podziemski contributed 20 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Podziemski has been a key offensive piece, averaging 15.7 points over his last three games while knocking down nine three-pointers in that span. Given his current form, his points prop Over 12.5 could be a solid play.
Oklahoma City Thunder Analysis
Oklahoma City has been one of the league’s most dominant teams, winning 22 of their last 25 games. Their latest victory, a 118-108 win over Portland, showcased MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who poured in 35 points, while Jalen Williams added 24.
Williams, a Bay Area college product from Santa Clara, has been sensational against Golden State, averaging nearly 20 points per game in their head-to-head matchups. He’s been efficient and impactful on both ends of the floor, making his points prop Over 18.5 worth considering.
The Thunder’s defense has also been a major factor in their success. They’ve held opponents to 32.7% shooting from three-point range, the best mark in the league, while the Warriors rank 14th at 36.0% opponent three-point shooting. If Oklahoma City can limit Golden State’s perimeter looks, they should be in a prime position to cover the double-digit spread.
Key Matchups & Betting Trends
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Dominance: SGA has been playing at an MVP level and will look to exploit a Warriors defense that struggles to contain elite scorers.
Jalen Williams vs. Brandin Podziemski: Williams has consistently outperformed Podziemski in head-to-head matchups, and his two-way play gives the Thunder another major advantage.
Warriors on Back-to-Back: Golden State is playing its second game in as many nights, a tough situation against a well-rested Thunder squad.
Betting Predictions
The Thunder’s recent dominance, combined with the Warriors’ inconsistency and back-to-back fatigue, makes Oklahoma City the clear choice to cover. Golden State may keep it close early with Curry back in the lineup, but Oklahoma City’s superior depth and defensive edge should allow them to pull away late.
Best Bets:
Oklahoma City -10.0 (Thunder continue their dominance against a tired Warriors team.)
Under 225.0 (Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense could slow down Golden State’s offense.)
Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (Consistently strong performances against the Warriors.)
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City 116, Golden State 103
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
