Oklahoma City (50-11) at Memphis (38-23)
- When: Mar 5 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: FedExForum, Memphis, TN, USA
- TV: FDSSE
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Betting Preview, Predictions & Player Props
Oklahoma City is favored by 8.5, with the total set at a high 250.0 points.
The struggling Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot, facing an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been the best in the Western Conference all season. The Grizzlies have lost three straight games in heartbreaking fashion, and things won’t get any easier against MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is in the midst of a historic scoring run.
Oklahoma City enters this matchup with 50 wins—the only Western Conference team to reach that mark—while Memphis has dropped six of its last eight games. To make matters worse for the Grizzlies, Jaren Jackson Jr. (22.7 PPG) has been ruled out indefinitely with an ankle injury, leaving Memphis severely shorthanded.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Red-Hot Offense & MVP-Level Play from SGA
The Thunder are riding high after a 137-128 win over Houston, in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander erupted for 51 points—his fourth 50-point performance in the last six weeks. He’s been nearly unstoppable, scoring 54, 52, 50, and now 51 points in recent outings, shooting over 40% from deep while continuing to dominate in the paint.
Head coach Mark Daigneault emphasized SGA’s ability to control the pace, making the right reads, and allowing his teammates to thrive. The Thunder’s offensive balance has been key to their success, and when Gilgeous-Alexander is in attack mode, it creates endless opportunities for his teammates.
Despite his scoring outbursts, SGA remains locked into winning over individual stats, saying:
“It’s not about chasing 50. It’s about competing and playing the game I love. Whether I score 50, 27, or 17—if we win, that’s what matters.”
Key Betting Trends for Oklahoma City:
✅ 50-17 overall record—the best in the West
✅ 5-1 SU in their last six games
✅ Over is 6-2 in their last eight games
Memphis Grizzlies: Shorthanded & Struggling on Defense
The Grizzlies were once sitting in second place in the West, but a rough six losses in their last eight games has dropped them to fourth. Injuries have played a huge role in the slump, with Ja Morant (shoulder) missing time, and now Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) ruled out indefinitely.
Defense has been the biggest issue for Memphis during this skid, allowing 132+ points in back-to-back games, including Monday’s 132-130 loss to Atlanta on a last-second layup. Desmond Bane (35 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) delivered his first career triple-double, but the Grizzlies blew a 13-point fourth-quarter lead and let another winnable game slip away.
Head coach Taylor Jenkins was frustrated with his team’s inability to defend down the stretch, saying:
“We scored 130 points. That should win most nights in the NBA. But defense has to matter. We’re bleeding points, and we need to rally together.”
Key Betting Trends for Memphis:
❌ Lost 6 of their last 8 games
❌ 3 straight losses in the final seconds
✅ Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games
Final Prediction & Best Bets
The Thunder are rolling, while the Grizzlies are reeling—and now without their top scorer and defender in Jaren Jackson Jr.. That’s a huge problem against an Oklahoma City offense that has been scoring at will. SGA has been on fire, and without a rim protector like Jackson Jr. in the paint, Memphis will struggle to stop him.
Memphis has been losing close games, but their defensive struggles make them a liability here. Oklahoma City is 5-1 in its last six games and is playing at a championship level. Expect them to take advantage of a depleted Memphis squad and cover the spread.
🔥 Betting Picks:
✅ Oklahoma City -8.5
✅ Over 250.0 – Both teams play at a fast pace
✅ SGA Over 31.5 Points – He’s on a historic scoring tear
Projected Score: Thunder 136, Grizzlies 122
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
