Oklahoma (20-13) vs Connecticut (23-10)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 9:25 PM
- Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Where to watch: TNT
Game Preview
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: UConn vs. Oklahoma
Line: UConn -6.5 | Total: 147.0UConn Huskies (23-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS)
Seed: No. 8 | Conference: Big East
The reigning back-to-back national champions enter this year’s tournament with a chip on their shoulder. UConn might not carry a top seed this time around, but they remain one of the most dangerous teams in the field. With an 18-4 record in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Dan Hurley, the Huskies are built for March.
UConn’s offensive output has been steady — led by Solo Ball (14.6 PPG), Liam McNeeley (14.5 PPG), and Alex Karaban (14.4 PPG). However, the Huskies haven’t had a single 20-point scorer in their last three games. That said, they’ve won five of their last six and enter this contest off a solid Big East tourney run that ended in a loss to Creighton.
UConn’s edge lies in its defense, discipline, and tournament experience. Hurley has consistently guided this program through deep runs, and even as an 8-seed, the Huskies are no underdog in pedigree.
Key Trends:
UConn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
The Huskies are 4-1 SU in their last five first-round tournament appearances.
UConn is 9-3 ATS in games where they are favored by 6 or fewer points this season.
Prediction: UConn’s balanced scoring and tournament-tested leadership give them the advantage. Their recent play suggests they’re trending upward at the right time. Expect a grind-it-out defensive effort and timely shooting to edge out the Sooners.
Oklahoma Sooners (20-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS)
Seed: No. 9 | Conference: SEC
Back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2021, Oklahoma returns to the NCAA Tournament under head coach Porter Moser. This is his first trip to the tournament with the Sooners after previously taking Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four.
Oklahoma started the year on fire with 13 straight wins, including high-profile victories over Arizona and Michigan. But SEC play exposed some of their inconsistencies, particularly on the defensive end. Still, the Sooners are battle-tested and have found new life behind freshman guard Jeremiah Fears, who has averaged 22.6 points over the last eight games.
The Sooners nearly upset Kentucky in the SEC tournament, falling 85-84 in a nail-biter. That close loss could give them confidence heading into this one. They’ll need a near-perfect game to keep up with UConn’s experience and defensive pressure.
Key Trends:
Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
The Sooners are 6-2 ATS as underdogs between +5 to +7 this season.
OU is 3-0 ATS in its last three games following a loss.
Prediction: Oklahoma has enough talent to keep this one close for stretches, especially with Fears playing elite basketball. But late-game execution favors UConn. The Sooners will struggle to match UConn’s efficiency and rebounding in key moments.
Final Score Prediction:
UConn 74, Oklahoma 65
Pick: UConn -6.5
Lean: Under 147.0
Expect a gritty, physical matchup early, but UConn’s tournament polish and deeper roster should carry them across the finish line. The Huskies take control late and cover the spread while keeping the total just under.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
