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Penn State (10-12) vs Michigan (20-1)
- When: Feb 5 2026, 6:30 PM
- Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Penn State vs (2) Michigan Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan -25.0
Moneyline: N/A
Total: 163.5
Michigan Wolverines Betting Breakdown
Michigan rolls into this matchup riding one of the most impressive stretches in the country. The Wolverines just took down two Top 10 opponents in the same week, edging Nebraska at home before walking into East Lansing and handling Michigan State by double digits. That surge pushed Michigan to 20 and 1 overall with a 10 and 1 Big Ten record, keeping them tied atop the conference and firmly in the national title conversation.
What separates this group is balance and size. Michigan’s frontcourt rotation overwhelms most opponents, and the offense rarely stalls because multiple players can score or create. Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team with 14.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, anchoring a lineup built to punish smaller teams inside while still spacing the floor. Michigan survived a scare in the first meeting with Penn State, winning 74 to 72, which serves as a reminder not to overlook anyone.
At home, with momentum and depth, Michigan is positioned to dictate pace early and stretch the margin as the game wears on.
Player Prop Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg over 14.5 points
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Breakdown
Penn State arrives in Ann Arbor fresh off snapping an eight game losing streak, a much needed confidence boost after a season filled with close calls and frustration. The Nittany Lions sit at 10-12 overall with a 1-10 conference mark, but their style can still make games uncomfortable, especially when they lean into pressure defense and tempo disruption.
Offensively, Penn State relies on guard play and quick decisions rather than size. Freddie Dilione V averages 13.9 points per game, giving the Nittany Lions a perimeter scorer capable of creating his own looks. Penn State nearly shocked Michigan earlier this season by pressing late and forcing mistakes, cutting a late deficit to one possession before falling short.
That blueprint remains the path to covering here. Penn State must speed the game up, force turnovers, and score efficiently before Michigan’s depth and size take control.
Player Prop Pick: Freddie Dilione V over 12.5 points
Expert Final Score Prediction
Michigan’s size advantage and home floor should eventually overwhelm Penn State, but the Nittany Lions’ tempo can keep this closer than expected early.
Final Score: Michigan 90, Penn State 69
Lean: Penn State +25.0
Total: Under 163.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
