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Phoenix (16-10) at Atlanta (16-11)
- When: Aug 1 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA, USA
- TV: ION
WNBA Preview and Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
Spread: Phoenix -3.5 | Total: 166.0
Atlanta Dream Breakdown
The Dream are riding the emotional rollercoaster this week. After suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss to Golden State on Tuesday, Atlanta bounced back less than 24 hours later with a dramatic 88-85 road win over Dallas, courtesy of Naz Hillmon’s go-ahead triple in the final seconds.
Atlanta is now 3-1 over its last four and thrives in tight games, each of their last three have been decided by four points or fewer. With Rhyne Howard still out nursing a knee injury, Hillmon has been a spark plug off the bench, including a season-high 21-point outburst last time out.
Head coach Karl Smesko isn’t shy about giving her flowers, either. “She brings fire off the bench,” he said postgame. Allisha Gray continues to lead the scoring charge with 18.3 PPG.
From a betting perspective, Atlanta’s resilience makes them a sneaky home underdog play, especially in close contests. If the game’s tight, don’t count them out.
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
Phoenix is limping through this five-game road swing, dropping four of their last five overall. Their defense was torched in their latest outing, a 107-101 loss to Indiana, marking their worst showing of the year. Giving up 32 points from the free-throw line alone had head coach Nate Tibbetts less than thrilled.
Alyssa Thomas did everything short of driving the team bus with 32 points, 15 boards, and 7 dimes, but her monster stat line couldn’t make up for the Mercury’s porous D.
Phoenix is still dangerous, boasting a talented roster led by Thomas (16.4 PPG, 9.2 APG, 8.3 RPG) and Satou Sabally (17.6 PPG). But on this road trip, they’ve struggled to put together complete performances.
Brittney Griner returns to Atlanta to face her old squad for just the second time. Last matchup? She dropped 17 points and grabbed eight boards in a 90-79 loss.
WNBA Game Prediction
This one has fireworks written all over it. Atlanta has momentum, but Phoenix has the firepower. In a close battle, the Mercury’s experience wins out, but it won’t be easy.
Score Prediction: Phoenix 86, Atlanta 83
Best Bet: Atlanta +3.5
Total: Over 166.0
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
