- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Phoenix (15-6) at Minnesota (19-4)
- When: Jul 16 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- TV: FDSN
WNBA Preview and Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
Spread: Minnesota -11.0 | Total: 158.5
Minnesota Lynx Breakdown
The Minnesota Lynx head back to their home court with payback on their minds, and the league’s best record in their back pocket. Sitting at 19-4, the Lynx are riding high after finishing off their grueling four-game, six-day road trip with a 91-78 win over the Chicago Sky, a game that doubled as a sweet revenge win after a previous stumble in the Windy City.
Now, the Lynx set their sights on the Phoenix Mercury, one of only a few teams to trip them up this year. Minnesota dropped a 79-71 decision in Phoenix just a week ago, but earlier this season they demolished the Mercury by 23 at home. Needless to say, the Lynx will be looking to restore order and finish the season series 3-1 with a dominant effort heading into the All-Star break.
Napheesa Collier is on a tear, she dropped 29 points last game, and Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride are backing her up with strong scoring and playmaking. Defensively, Minnesota is clicking, forcing 14 steals and turning them into 24 points last game. Their identity on defense has them grinding down opponents as the game wears on.
If Minnesota brings the same defensive pressure at home, Phoenix might need divine intervention to stay within single digits.
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
Despite being double-digit underdogs, the Mercury (15-6) aren’t limping into this one, they’re strutting in on a three-game winning streak and victories in 9 of their last 11 games. They survived a nail-biter Monday night at Golden State, winning 78-77 on a clutch free throw by Alyssa Thomas, who’s clearly leading the charge.
Thomas posted a career-high 29 points last time these teams met, and her consistent two-way play is a massive reason Phoenix is among the league’s elite. Another X-factor? The return of seasoned vet DeWanna Bonner. Fresh off being cut by Indiana (seriously, Fever?), Bonner just poured in 22 points and 11 boards off the bench, proving she’s still got plenty left in the tank.
Phoenix leads the WNBA in made threes per game (10.1), but the long ball has gone ice cold against Minnesota. They’ve shot an abysmal 9-for-72 from deep across three matchups with the Lynx, including a laughably brutal 1-for-16 night last week.
They’ll need more than just three-point prayers to pull off the upset, especially in hostile territory.
WNBA Game Prediction:
This is a spot where the Lynx should assert their dominance. With revenge on deck, a return to home court, and elite defensive energy, Minnesota has all the momentum heading into the break. Phoenix is scrappy, sure but when their biggest weapon (the three-ball) goes MIA against Minnesota, it’s hard to justify them keeping this close.
Look for the Lynx to wear the Mercury down late again and pull away in the second half.
Score Prediction: Minnesota 85, Phoenix 70
Best Bet: Minnesota -11
Total: Under 158.5
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
