Purdue (24-11) vs Houston (32-4)
- When: Mar 28 2025, 10:09 PM
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- Where to watch: TBS
Houston vs Purdue Betting Preview, Predictions & Player Props
Line: Houston -8.5 | Total: 132.5
Houston Cougars Outlook
The top-seeded Houston Cougars roll into the Sweet 16 riding a 15-game win streak, and their rugged defense is showing no signs of letting up. After gutting out an 81-76 victory over Gonzaga behind a 30-point explosion from L.J. Cryer, the Cougars look primed to extend their run.
While they’ll technically be the “road team” against Purdue, the Cougars have been a dominant force away from home, winning 15 straight combined road and neutral-site games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson isn’t interested in outside noise — he’s got tunnel vision for the Elite Eight.
Houston’s defensive numbers are no joke: just 58.0 points allowed per game this season, tops in the country. They have the physicality and perimeter pressure to frustrate any offense, and their depth gives them multiple scoring options behind Cryer and Milos Uzan. Look for Uzan to set the tone on both ends, and for Houston’s suffocating defense to wear Purdue down in the second half.
Player Prop Picks (Houston):
L.J. Cryer Over 16.5 Points – He’s hit 30+ twice this month and thrives in big moments.
Milos Uzan Over 4.5 Assists – Floor general expected to carve up Purdue’s coverage with ball movement.
Purdue Boilermakers Outlook
Purdue might be listed as the No. 4 seed, but playing in Indiana gives them a pseudo home-court edge. Coming off dominant wins in the first two rounds, the Boilermakers are leaning into experience, leadership, and familiarity — all five starters began their careers at Purdue.
Braden Smith is the engine of this group, and he’ll need to be sharp navigating Houston’s elite on-ball defense. Smith is nearing a historic stat line and has been one of the nation’s most productive guards. He’ll be pivotal in keeping the offense organized and limiting turnovers.
Still, Purdue’s challenges are mounting. They’ve gone 1-2 in games played in Indianapolis this year, and haven’t fared well historically against No. 1 seeds in the tournament (0-8 all-time). That said, their cohesion and grind-it-out style gives them a fighting chance if they can limit Houston’s transition points and win the battle on the boards.
Player Prop Picks (Purdue):
Braden Smith Over 7.5 Assists – He’s the heart of the offense and will be heavily involved in every set.
Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 6.5 Rebounds – With Houston crashing the paint, Purdue will need Kaufman-Renn’s to control the glass.
Betting Prediction & Final Thoughts
Houston’s defensive pressure and ability to close games late make them a tough out for any team — even one as seasoned and disciplined as Purdue. The Cougars have the depth, momentum, and physicality to wear the Boilermakers down, especially in the second half.
Expect this to be a grinder early, but Houston’s perimeter shooting and aggressive defense should open the gap late.
Best Bets:
Best Bet: Houston -8.5
Lean: Under 132.5
Predictions: Houston 68, Purdue 57
Houston keeps its Final Four dreams alive and moves one step closer to cutting down the nets.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
