St. Louis (48-42) at Chi. Cubs (53-36)
- When: Jul 6 2025, 6:10 PM
- Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago
- Where to watch: ESPN
Cardinals vs Cubs – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: Chi. Cubs -195
Total: 7.5
RunLine: Chi. Cubs -1.5 (+102)
Chicago Cubs Outlook
Pitching Through the Pain
The Cubs’ rotation has taken hit after hit this season, with Jameson Taillon becoming the latest casualty. But lefty Matthew Boyd has been a rock, helping to patch the rotation and keep Chicago steady. Boyd (8-3, 2.65 ERA) enters this start on a roll, having allowed only two earned runs across 13 innings in his last two starts.
He’s already carved up the Cardinals once this season, spinning six scoreless innings with just three hits in an 8-0 win on June 25. And it wasn’t a fluke, he’s 2-1 with a sparkling 1.57 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis.
Despite Saturday’s hiccup, the Cubs are still 5-2 in their last seven and boast one of the league’s more productive home lineups. With Boyd dealing and the bullpen rested, Chicago is in a strong position to take the rubber match.
Cubs Player Props:
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Total Bases – Hitting .312 vs. right-handers in July and thrives on sinkers, which Fedde relies on.
Matt Boyd Over 5.5 Strikeouts – The Cards have whiffed 28% of the time against lefties in the last two weeks.
St. Louis Cardinals Outlook
Trying to Avoid Another Boyd Beatdown
The Cardinals snapped their losing skid Saturday but still face major challenges, especially with Matthew Boyd back on the mound. They’ve been ice-cold against left-handers, scoring just six runs over their last 36 innings vs. southpaws. Injuries don’t help either, slugger Nolan Arenado remains questionable with a shoulder issue, while Ivan Herrera and Jordan Walker are still sidelined.
Erick Fedde (3-8, 4.56 ERA) has been roughed up in his last two outings, allowing a combined 14 runs. He was torched by the Cubs just a couple of weeks ago, giving up three homers and seven earned runs in under four innings. His command has been shaky, and his sinker has lacked movement, leading to early exits and big innings.
Fedde is winless in five career starts against the Cubs, holding a dreadful 7.92 ERA in those matchups. Another poor showing could bury St. Louis early.
Cardinals Player Props:
Masyn Winn Over 0.5 RBIs – Leading off and one of the few Cardinals swinging it well; could take advantage if Fedde keeps it close.
Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Quietly consistent vs. lefties and due to cash with runners aboard.
Final Prediction & Betting Angle
The Cubs have the edge in the pitching matchup, lineup depth, and recent form. Boyd is the stabilizer they’ve needed, and Fedde simply hasn’t looked right. With the Cards limping offensively and potentially missing Arenado again, it’s tough to trust them in this spot.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Cardinals 3
Lean: Chi. Cubs -1.5 (+102)
Total: Over 7.5 (-105) – If St. Louis scratches a couple late against the bullpen.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
