Tennessee (30-6) vs Houston (31-5)
- When: Mar 30 2025, 2:20 PM
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Houston vs. Tennessee: Midwest Regional Final Betting Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -3.0 | Total: 124.5
Houston Cougars Outlook
Houston heads into Sunday’s showdown with Tennessee riding the emotional high of a buzzer-beating 62-60 win over Purdue. Milos Uzan’s game-winning layup in the final second capped off a gritty defensive battle and sent the Cougars to the doorstep of the Final Four.
While Houston’s offense wasn’t at its sharpest, their elite defense was once again the difference-maker — forcing turnovers, limiting transition buckets, and locking down in crunch time. They’re now preparing to face a Tennessee squad that brings the same defensive tenacity and physicality.
L.J. Cryer, Houston’s top scorer, struggled against Purdue, going just 2-for-13 from the floor. Expect a bounce-back performance here, especially with his history on this court — Cryer won a national title here with Baylor and dropped 30 on Gonzaga in the second round.
Milos Uzan could be the X-factor once again. The junior guard has found his rhythm, draining a career-high six threes in the Purdue win and showing the poise of a tournament-tested veteran. If Houston can get similar offensive contributions, especially with Mylik Wilson’s status uncertain, they’ll be tough to beat.
Defensively, Houston ranks No. 1 in the nation in opponent field goal percentage (38.4%) and leads Division I in points allowed per game (58.5). Their pressure, perimeter defense, and ability to contest every look will need to be on full display again against Tennessee’s deep backcourt.
Tennessee Volunteers Outlook
The Vols rolled past SEC rival Kentucky to reach the Elite Eight, and they’re playing with the confidence of a team that believes this is their year. Rick Barnes’ squad has been dominant on both ends, especially on defense, where they rank No. 2 nationally in field goal percentage allowed (38.5%) and sixth in points allowed (62.9).
Point guard Zakai Zeigler has been the engine of Tennessee’s offense and defense. He dropped 18 points and dished out 10 assists against Kentucky and will be tasked with controlling the pace against Houston’s backcourt. His decision-making and speed off ball screens are a huge asset.
Another player to watch is Chaz Lanier, who’s averaging 22 points in the tournament and presents serious challenges as a tough-shot maker. If Houston keys in on Zeigler, Lanier could exploit mismatches on the perimeter.
On defense, Tennessee can throw multiple elite defenders at Houston’s guards. Both Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack are finalists for national defensive player of the year honors and will be heavily involved in containing Cryer and Uzan.
Betting Analysis & Prediction
This matchup is a defensive purist’s dream — two of the best units in college basketball, loaded with veteran players, scrappy guards, and disciplined coaching. Scoring will be at a premium, and every possession will be a war.
Spread Prediction: Houston -3.0
Houston has been slightly more battle-tested, has tournament closers in Cryer and Uzan, and their defense travels. Tennessee will keep it close, but expect Kelvin Sampson’s crew to lock down late and make the key plays.
Total Prediction: Under 124.5
This total is already low, but with how both teams defend and the slower tempo expected, the under still holds value. First team to 60 might win this slugfest.
Score Prediction:
Best Bets:
Houston -3.0
Under 124.5
Player Prop Pick: L.J. Cryer Over 17.5 Points (Bounce-back scoring effort after a rough shooting night)
Expect a gritty, physical battle with elite coaching and execution on display. Houston has the edge in closing experience and defense, which should push them back into the Final Four.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
