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Toronto (15-12-5) at Washington (18-11-4)
- When: Dec 18 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC, USA
- TV: MNMT
Toronto vs Washington NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Washington -160
Spread: Washington -1.5 (+170)
Total: 6.0
Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown
Toronto limps into Washington after an uneven homestand that did little to calm nerves. The Leafs managed just a 2-1-2 stretch at home, though they did show some fight in a comeback win over Chicago. That effort highlighted a recurring theme for this team: slow starts followed by urgency when the margin for error disappears.
The bigger concern is where Toronto sits in the standings. Hovering outside the playoff picture halfway through the season has clearly created tension, both on the bench and on the ice. The good news for bettors is that Toronto has been far more reliable away from home. The Leafs have won three straight road games by a combined 16-4 score, showing better structure and pace when playing simpler hockey.
Defensively, help could be coming if Chris Tanev returns, but the goaltending situation remains patchwork with Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby sharing duties. Toronto can score enough to hang around, but lapses in coverage and inconsistent net play keep them volatile. In a tight matchup, that volatility matters.
Washington Capitals Breakdown
Washington returns home licking its wounds after a rough two game road swing where offense completely disappeared. Being outscored 10-1 is not the identity this team wants heading into a home game, especially against a division rival that already beat them earlier this season.
Despite the skid, Washington remains firmly in the playoff mix and still believes its ceiling matches last year’s elite run. The issue lately has been finishing chances and execution across all four lines. When the Capitals go cold, it affects everything from forechecking pressure to defensive gaps.
Playing at home provides a reset opportunity. Washington already proved it can beat Toronto by staying disciplined and capitalizing on mistakes. With the Leafs dealing with lineup questions and a shaky crease, this is a prime spot for the Capitals to regain form and control tempo.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Washington enters as the moneyline favorite at minus 160, and that price makes sense given Toronto’s inconsistency and the Capitals’ ability to bounce back at home. The total sits at 6.0, and recent form from both teams suggests a tighter defensive game rather than a track meet.
Prediction: Washington controls play early, limits Toronto’s transition chances, and snaps its losing streak.
Score Prediction: Capitals 3, Maple Leafs 2
Pick: Washington (-160)
Total: Under 6.0 (-122)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
