UCLA (11-4) at Maryland (11-4)
- When: Jan 10 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
Maryland enters this matchup as a 5.0-point favorite, with the total set at 139.0, as the Terrapins and No. 22 UCLA Bruins aim to shake off rough starts to the new year and get back on track in Friday night’s Big Ten showdown in College Park.
Game Preview & Betting Analysis
Both teams have struggled in 2025, with Maryland (11-4, 1-3) and UCLA (11-4, 2-2) each dropping two recent conference games after holding second-half leads. For bettors, the storyline revolves around which team can close out strong—something both squads have failed to do lately.
Maryland is coming off an 83-79 loss to No. 9 Oregon, where the Terrapins squandered a 13-point lead. Similarly, UCLA suffered a lopsided 94-75 home loss to No. 24 Michigan, collapsing after halftime and getting out-rebounded 74-61 across their two most recent defeats. Head coach Mick Cronin didn’t mince words, calling his team “soft” and frustrated by their lack of defensive grit.
Key Matchups & X-Factors
Rebounding Battle: Both teams have struggled to secure defensive boards late in games. Maryland’s frontcourt duo of Derik Queen (16.0 PPG) and Julian Reese (13.0 PPG) will be key to reversing that trend. Meanwhile, UCLA’s failure to box out has led to second-chance points for opponents, a glaring issue Cronin has called out.
Three-Point Shooting: UCLA’s 12.5% shooting from beyond the arc over the last two games is abysmal. Guards Sebastian Mack, Eric Dailey Jr., and Dylan Andrews are a combined 0-for-18 in that stretch. Maryland, on the other hand, boasts several perimeter threats, led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who has hit 33 threes this season. If UCLA’s shooting slump continues, it could be another long night.
Closing Out Games: Both teams have shown strong starts but have faded in the second half. Maryland’s head coach Kevin Willard has openly questioned his starting unit’s energy after halftime, a concerning pattern for bettors hoping the Terrapins can cover the spread.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-5.0): Maryland’s home-court advantage and more consistent offensive production give them the edge. If they can avoid second-half meltdowns, they should cover the 5-point spread against a struggling UCLA squad.
Total Pick (139.0): With both teams capable of scoring in bunches but prone to defensive lapses, the over is enticing. However, if UCLA’s shooting woes persist, this could end up under the total.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Derik Queen over 17.5 points: Queen has been Maryland’s most reliable scorer and should find success against UCLA’s weak interior defense.
UCLA team total under 66.5 points: With the Bruins’ offensive struggles, this could be a smart play if their three-point shooting doesn’t improve.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie over 2.5 threes: Gillespie’s shooting ability makes this prop attractive, especially against UCLA’s soft perimeter defense.
Final Score Prediction:
Maryland 72, UCLA 65. The Terrapins’ balanced offense and superior shooting should give them the upper hand, especially if UCLA continues to struggle from deep and on the boards. Maryland’s ability to protect their lead after halftime will be key to covering the spread and controlling the tempo in what could be a pivotal conference win.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
