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UCLA (17-8) vs Michigan State (20-5)
- When: Feb 17 2026, 8:30 PM
- Where: Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, MI, USA
- Where to watch: Peacock
UCLA vs (15) Michigan State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan State -8.5
Moneyline: Michigan State (-455)
Total: 140.0
UCLA Bruins Breakdown
UCLA heads to East Lansing sitting at 17-8 overall and 9-5 in conference play, still very much in the Big Ten mix. The Bruins have won seven of their last 10, but that ugly 86-56 loss at Michigan exposed how fragile they can be when shots stop falling. They were blitzed 46-18 in the second half and allowed 78.3 percent shooting after halftime. That cannot happen against a Michigan State team desperate to respond.
Tyler Bilodeau remains the focal point offensively, leading UCLA with 17.9 points per game while also sharing the team rebounding lead at 5.6 boards. Donovan Dent adds 13.5 points and 7.0 assists, and Skyy Clark’s return (13.1 ppg average) gives the backcourt more punch.
Best Bet Prop: Tyler Bilodeau Over 17.5 Points – Michigan State’s margin for error is thin, and Bilodeau’s usage rate and scoring consistency make him UCLA’s most reliable offensive option.
Michigan State Spartans Breakdown
Michigan State enters at 20-5 overall and 10-4 in league play, but they’ve dropped three of their last four and were embarrassed 92-71 at Wisconsin. They shot just 29.6 percent from three while surrendering 42.9 percent from deep. That’s a formula for disaster.
Jeremy Fears Jr. continues to drive the engine with 15.1 points and 9.2 assists per game. He posted 14 points and 12 assists last outing despite shooting just 3-of-12. Jaxon Kohler adds 12.5 points and 9.3 rebounds, while Coen Carr chips in 11.7 per night.
At home, though, Michigan State has been far more stable, and Izzo teams typically respond well after blowout losses.
Best Bet Prop: Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 8.5 Assists – If the Spartans cover, it will be because Fears controls tempo and distributes efficiently against UCLA’s inconsistent defense.
Betting Prediction
This projects as a physical, grind-it-out game. UCLA struggles offensively on the road, and Michigan State should tighten up defensively after the Wisconsin disaster. Expect the Spartans to respond at home and pull away late.
Final Score: Michigan State 74, UCLA 62
Lean: Michigan State -8.5
Total: Under 140.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
