USC (16-16) vs Purdue (21-10)
- When: Mar 13 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- Where to watch: BTN
Purdue vs. USC: Big Ten Tournament Matchup Breakdown and Betting Preview
The Purdue Boilermakers enter the Big Ten Tournament looking to reset after a rough stretch to close the regular season, while the USC Trojans are riding momentum after a thrilling double-overtime victory in the first round. With a spot in the quarterfinals on the line, expect a hard-fought battle as both teams fight for their postseason hopes.
Purdue Boilermakers: Can They Regain Their Dominance?
After starting the season strong and contending for a top seed, Purdue stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games. Now, the No. 6 seed is focusing on one game at a time rather than a deep tournament run.
Despite their late-season slump, the Boilermakers still possess one of the most efficient offenses in the Big Ten, averaging over 80 points per game. Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.7 PPG) has been a consistent force, leading the team in scoring, while Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith remains the engine of the offense with his playmaking and ability to control the tempo.
However, defense has been Purdue’s Achilles’ heel. In their recent loss to Illinois (88-80), they struggled to contain perimeter shooters and allowed too many second-chance points. If they want to cover the double-digit spread, they’ll need to lock in defensively and limit open looks for USC’s top scorers.
Betting Outlook for Purdue:
Strengths: Efficient offense, strong rebounding, top-tier guard play
Concerns: Inconsistent defense, recent struggles against top competition
Best Bet: Purdue Team Total Over 79.5
USC Trojans: Riding the Wave of Momentum
The Trojans kept their season alive with a gritty 97-89 double-overtime win over Rutgers in the first round. While USC has had an up-and-down season, their offensive explosion in the opening round showed that they can still be dangerous, particularly in a tournament setting.
Desmond Claude (28 points, 8 assists), Wesley Yates III (24 points), and Rashaun Agee (23 points, 11 rebounds) all had monster performances against Rutgers. If they can replicate that scoring output, they have a real chance to keep this game competitive.
However, fatigue could be a major factor. Playing back-to-back games in a tournament setting is never easy, especially against a fresh Purdue team with size and depth. The Trojans also struggled against Purdue earlier this season, falling 90-72 on Feb. 7, despite Yates’ impressive 30-point outing.
USC’s defense has been inconsistent all season, and they’ll have to find a way to contain Kaufman-Renn in the paint while also limiting Purdue’s three-point threats. If they can keep the game close early, they might have a chance to cover the spread.
Betting Outlook for USC:
Strengths: Momentum from first-round win, offensive firepower, aggressive guard play
Concerns: Fatigue from back-to-back games, defensive inconsistency, struggles against elite teams
Best Bet: USC +10 if they can keep pace early
Final Prediction and Best Bets
Purdue has the rest advantage and the talent edge, but they haven’t been playing their best basketball. USC, on the other hand, is coming in with confidence and a red-hot offense after their thrilling win. While Purdue should get the victory, the double-digit spread makes this a tricky betting spot.
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 82, USC 74
Best Bets:
✅ USC +10 (if they avoid a slow start)
✅ Over 150.0 (USC’s pace and scoring ability should keep this from being a defensive slugfest)
✅ Purdue 1H -5.5 (Expect them to come out strong after their recent struggles)
This matchup should be an exciting one, with Purdue looking to reestablish itself as a Big Ten contender and USC aiming to play spoiler. Expect a high-scoring affair with Purdue ultimately pulling away late.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
