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St. John’s (22-5) vs UConn (25-3)
- When: Feb 25 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: PeoplesBank Arena, Hartford, CT, USA
- Where to watch: Peacock
(15) St. John’s vs (6) UConn Preview & Prediction
Spread: UConn -5.0
Moneyline: UConn (-233)
Total: 147.0
St. John’s Red Storm Breakdown
This is not just another Big East clash. It is leverage. With St. John’s sitting at 22-5 overall and 15-1 in conference play, they walk into Hartford knowing a win tightens their grip on the regular season crown. They already handled UConn 81-72 on Feb. 6, closing strong in the final minutes. Now they look to stretch a 13-game winning streak to 14, their longest heater since that dominant 1984-85 run.
Rick Pitino’s group has built this surge on defense and composure. They just suffocated Creighton 81-52, holding them to 32.1 percent shooting. During this run, four opponents have failed to crack 40 percent from the field. That is not variance. That is identity.
Bryce Hopkins continues to anchor the interior, posting 15 points and 10 rebounds against Creighton after dropping 23 and 10 at Marquette. Dillon Mitchell cleaned the glass again with 10 boards, reinforcing how physical this team has become. Even reserve guard Dylan Darling chipped in 17 points in the last outing, showing depth that bettors should respect.
Still, this number matters. UConn is laying 5.0 and the total is 147.0. St. John’s has defended at a high level, but they are stepping into a building where UConn rarely blinks. If this becomes a half-court grind, points will not come easy.
Player Prop: Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 Rebounds – UConn plays physically inside, which should keep Ejiofor active on the glass. In a tight, high-intensity matchup, rebounding numbers tend to climb for primary frontcourt pieces.
UConn Huskies Breakdown
UConn enters at 25-3 and 15-2 in the Big East, knowing full well that another slip could cost them the regular season title. Dan Hurley called their defense “a joke” after surrendering 91 points to Creighton. That message landed. They answered with a 73-63 road win at Villanova, leading by as many as 21 and holding the Wildcats to 40.7 percent shooting.
Earlier in the season, UConn had an 18-game winning streak snapped by St. John’s despite shooting 54.7 percent and hitting 9 of 19 from three. The problem was 15 turnovers. If they clean that up, they are the more efficient offense.
Alex Karaban bounced back from a two-point dud against Creighton with 12 against Villanova. Tarris Reed Jr. added 11 points and six rebounds as UConn dominated the glass 37-24. That rebounding margin is not trivial. In games of this magnitude, extra possessions decide spreads.
The Huskies at home, laying 5.0, signals market respect. With their defense re-engaged and depth showing, this sets up as a statement opportunity.
Player Prop: Alex Karaban Over 11.5 Points – After scoring 12 in the Villanova win and seeing heavier involvement in bounce-back spots, Karaban should get volume looks. In a revenge setting, expect UConn to lean on his scoring versatility.
Final Score Prediction
I project UConn to edge this matchup because of home-court intensity, rebounding advantage, and improved defensive focus. The pace should stay measured, possessions will be valued, and that favors the Huskies pulling away late in a tight, physical contest.
Expect intensity, rebounding battles, and long possessions. This one feels like March basketball arriving early.
Final Score: UConn 74, St. John’s 68
Lean: UConn -5.0
Total: Under 147.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
