Atlanta (0-3) at San Diego (3-0)
- When: Mar 30 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: PETCO Park, San Diego
- Where to watch: ESPN
MLB Betting Preview: Braves vs Padres – Game 4
Moneyline: San Diego -120 | Total: 8.0
The San Diego Padres enter Sunday as slight -120 moneyline favorites with a total set at 8.0 runs as they look to finish off a four-game sweep of the visiting Atlanta Braves. But the good vibes in San Diego might be tested sooner than expected.
Padres Outlook & Betting Angle
San Diego’s been on a roll, but Saturday’s 1-0 win came at a cost. Veteran third baseman Manny Machado exited mid-game with right calf tightness. While the team downplayed the issue, it’s possible he misses this finale. If he’s sidelined, expect newly signed Jose Iglesias to get the call at third base — he went 0-for-2 in relief on Saturday. The Padres’ depth, which was already a preseason talking point, is about to face its first real test.
Starting Sunday is offseason pickup Nick Pivetta, who is making his first official Padres start. Last year with Boston, he logged a 4.14 ERA with 172 strikeouts in 145 2/3 innings. He’s had mixed success against Atlanta in his career, going 8-5 with a 4.93 ERA in 21 appearances. Still, Pivetta offers the veteran edge and familiarity with Braves hitters, which could pay off here.
Given how well San Diego’s bullpen has locked in — especially in close games — backing the Padres to win outright at home offers good value.
Prediction: Padres ML (-120)
Lean: Under 8.0
Braves Breakdown & Betting Insight
Atlanta, usually a powerhouse on offense, has been completely out of sync at the plate. They’ve now dropped three straight in this series and have gone an ice-cold 1-for-XX with runners in scoring position. That lack of clutch hitting bit them again on Saturday, stranding the tying run at third base to end the game.
The Braves hand the ball to A.J. Smith-Shawver, who gets the nod for his 2025 debut. He’s no stranger to San Diego — he started Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series here last October and gave up a two-run homer to Fernando Tatis Jr. in a brief 1 1/3 inning outing. Smith-Shawver has good stuff, but against a confident Padres squad, he’ll need to show more poise if Atlanta wants to avoid a sweep.
Atlanta is due for a breakout game at the plate, but this matchup may not be the one. San Diego is thriving behind its pitching and home momentum.
Prediction: Braves struggle to convert RISP again, and San Diego wins a tight one.
Final Score: Padres 4, Braves 3
Prop Pick: Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts — Atlanta’s lineup is prone to whiffs, and Pivetta’s strikeout rate offers upside here.
- MLB Odds source: MYBookie Sportsbook
