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Boston (66-55) at Houston (67-53)
- When: Aug 13 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Daikin Park, Houston
- Where to watch: NESN
Red Sox vs Astros – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: Houston -172
Total: 8.0
RunLine: Houston -1.5 (+126)
Houston Astros Betting Outlook
The Astros’ week has been a mix of good and bad news. On the positive side, they got Cristian Javier back in the rotation Monday after a 15-month recovery from Tommy John surgery. On the downside, elite closer Josh Hader hit the 15-day IL with shoulder discomfort. Manager Joe Espada hasn’t named a permanent ninth-inning replacement, but Bryan Abreu is the most logical candidate, with Espada hinting at a “closer-by-committee” approach.
Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.51 ERA) will get the ball for Houston in the rubber match. Despite an impressive season overall, Brown is winless in his last six starts (0-2, 4.73 ERA), but his underlying numbers remain elite, leading the AL in hits allowed per nine (6.21) and ranking third in ERA and strikeouts (160). Against Boston, he’s been strong, going 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two career starts, including seven dominant innings earlier this month.
Astros Player Prop Pick: Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts — Brown’s swing-and-miss stuff matches up well against a Boston lineup that can struggle with high-velocity fastballs and sharp breaking balls.
Boston Red Sox Betting Outlook
Boston counters with Walker Buehler (7-6, 5.40 ERA), who’s trending in the right direction after a shaky first half. He’s posted a 3.27 ERA over his last six starts, including six scoreless innings against San Diego last time out. Historically, he’s been solid against Houston (1-1, 3.72 ERA in four starts), though he allowed nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings when he faced them earlier this month.
Manager Alex Cora has been tinkering with the lineup at first base, starting Abraham Toro in the first two games before likely handing the spot to Romy Gonzalez for the finale. The goal is to maintain balance against Houston’s bullpen mix, especially with multiple lefties available for matchup plays.
Red Sox Player Prop Pick: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases — Bregman has a strong track record of barreling up high-velocity fastballs, making him a prime threat against Brown’s heater if he gets ahead in counts.
Prediction & Betting Angle
Houston’s home-field advantage and Brown’s dominance in past matchups give the Astros the edge here, especially against a Boston lineup that’s been inconsistent on the road. Buehler’s improved form could keep this game from getting out of hand early, but Houston’s lineup depth should eventually break through.
Final Score Prediction: Astros 5, Red Sox 3
Lean: Houston -1.5 (+126)
Total: Over 7.5 Alt Lines (-125)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
