Houston (2-3) at Golden State (3-2)
- When: May 2 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
- TV: ESPN
NBA Playoffs Game 6 Betting Breakdown: Rockets at Warriors
Spread: Warriors -5.0 | Total: 207.0
Golden State Warriors – Back Home, Backs Against the Wall (Sort Of)
Golden State returns to the Chase Center with a 3-2 series lead after essentially waving the white flag early in Game 5. Down 29 late in the third, head coach Steve Kerr pulled all five starters and turned Game 5 into a glorified rest session, with none of the regulars logging more than 26 minutes. That strategic retreat signals full focus on Friday night’s Game 6, where the Warriors historically thrive in bounce-back scenarios.
The Warriors are no strangers to playoff adversity—they took a similar path in 2022 when they got blown out in Game 5 on the road, only to come home and end the series with authority. With elite experience, a rested core, and a home crowd behind them, Golden State is expected to respond in kind.
Spread Lean: Warriors -5.0
Golden State has the edge in experience, is coming off unexpected rest, and will likely show urgency from the opening tip.
Top Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Over 25.5 Points
Curry is known for answering the call in elimination-type situations, and with fresh legs, he’s in position to deliver a signature performance at home.
Houston Rockets – Young, Fast, and Not Backing Down
The Rockets forced a Game 6 by unleashing their best effort of the series in Game 5, running the Warriors off the court early and using their athleticism to control the pace. Houston led by as many as 29 and looked more focused and aggressive than they had all series. Fred VanVleet led the charge with 26 points, but it was the team’s defense and transition game that set the tone.
Ime Udoka’s squad has evolved with each game, doing a better job disrupting the Warriors’ rhythm and forcing more isolation play. That’s no accident—Udoka’s game plan is all about forcing Golden State out of its flow and challenging them to create one-on-one.
But here’s the concern: while the Rockets have been feisty, they’re still an unproven playoff group heading into a hostile environment. Their ceiling is high, but the pressure now swings back to them—can they match the intensity again?
Total Prediction: Over 207.0
Golden State’s offensive rhythm at home, combined with Houston’s pace and confidence, could push this game over the relatively low total.
Top Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 Assists
With Houston forcing tempo, VanVleet’s playmaking role becomes key again. Look for him to dish frequently against a scrambling Warriors defense.
Final Betting Prediction
Golden State has historically responded to big losses with big wins, and Game 6 at home with a fresh starting lineup is a perfect storm. Houston has proven it won’t go away quietly, but the moment may favor the seasoned vets more than the youthful energy this time around.
Final Score Prediction: Warriors 109, Rockets 101
Pick: Warriors -5.0
Lean: Over 207.0
Props to Target: Curry Over 25.5 Points, VanVleet Over 4.5 Assists
Expect a strong Golden State push early and a potential series closeout if they control the tempo.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
