Wisconsin (19-5) at Purdue (19-6)
- When: Feb 15 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Game Preview
Purdue Favored by 5.5 | Total Set at 151.5
Two Big Ten heavyweights square off in a crucial conference showdown as No. 7 Purdue looks to bounce back from a tough loss, while No. 16 Wisconsin tries to climb into title contention. With both teams eyeing top seeding in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, expect an intense battle in West Lafayette.
Purdue Boilermakers: Searching for a Statement Win at Home
Purdue (19-6, 11-3 Big Ten) comes into this matchup after slipping out of first place with a nail-biting 75-73 road loss to Michigan. Despite outshooting the Wolverines from the field, the Boilermakers struggled with foul trouble, sending Michigan to the free-throw line 26 times while attempting just eight free throws themselves. If Purdue wants to cover as a home favorite, they’ll need to avoid those costly mistakes.
The offense runs through Trey Kaufman-Renn, who leads Purdue with 19 points per game on a scorching 60.2% shooting. He dropped 22 points against Michigan but didn’t get to the foul line once—something that must change against a Wisconsin squad that thrives at the charity stripe. Braden Smith provides a steady presence in the backcourt, averaging 16.4 points and 8.7 assists per game, while Fletcher Loyer adds 13.8 points per game and is knocking down 45.1% from three.
One concern for Purdue bettors? The bench was non-existent against Michigan, getting outscored 21-0. While Matt Painter isn’t too worried about depth in close matchups, the Boilermakers will need contributions from their role players to cover the spread against a Wisconsin team that thrives in physical, grind-it-out games.
Key Betting Trends:
Purdue is 8-4 ATS at home this season.
The Boilermakers have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 5+ points.
The over has cashed in four of Purdue’s last five games.
Wisconsin Badgers: Defense & Free Throws Could Be the Difference
Wisconsin (19-5, 9-4 Big Ten) is riding high after a 74-63 road win over Iowa, where they held the high-powered Hawkeyes 22 points below their season average. The Badgers have leaned on a stingy defense and elite free-throw shooting, ranking first in the nation at 84.1% from the stripe. That could play a major role if Purdue struggles with fouls again.
Offensively, John Tonje has emerged as a game-changer, scoring 22 points against Iowa, including seven straight to fuel a decisive 16-4 closing run. The graduate transfer is having a breakout season, averaging 18.6 points per game on 46.8% shooting. Wisconsin also boasts John Blackwell (15.3 ppg), Max Klesmit (10.1 ppg), and Nolan Winter (10.0 ppg), giving them a well-balanced attack.
If the Badgers can slow down Purdue’s elite scorers and control the tempo, they could make this a one-possession game, which makes the +5.5 spread appealing for bettors.
Key Betting Trends:
Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.
The under has hit in six of the Badgers’ last eight games.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record.
Prediction & Best Bets
This is the only scheduled meeting between Purdue and Wisconsin this season, and both teams have plenty to play for. Purdue is dominant at home, but Wisconsin’s ability to control the pace and get to the free-throw line makes them a dangerous underdog.
Best Bet: Wisconsin +5.5 – The Badgers’ defense and free-throw shooting should keep this close.
Lean: Under 151.5 – Both teams prefer a more methodical pace, and Purdue’s recent defensive issues should be addressed at home.
Player Prop to Watch: Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 19.5 Points – Expect a bounce-back performance at the free-throw line and another high-efficiency game.
Wisconsin has the tools to keep this competitive, but Purdue should pull away late for a narrow win. Final score prediction: Purdue 75, Wisconsin 71.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
