Utah State (26-7) vs UCLA (22-10)
- When: Mar 20 2025, 9:25 PM
- Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, USA
- Where to watch: TNT
UCLA vs. Utah State: NCAA Tournament Betting Preview & Predictions
The UCLA Bruins bring their signature lockdown defense into a first-round showdown against the high-powered offense of Utah State in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament. With both teams featuring contrasting styles, this matchup promises to be a battle of defensive grit vs. offensive firepower on Thursday in Lexington, Kentucky.
UCLA Bruins: Defense Leads the Way
🔹 Record: 22-10
🔹 Last Game: 86-70 loss to Wisconsin (Big Ten Quarterfinals)
🔹 Key Strength: Elite defense (65.7 PPG allowed, 27th in NCAA)
The Bruins return to March Madness after missing out last year and are seeking to prove themselves on the big stage. Despite some late-season offensive struggles, Mick Cronin’s squad remains one of the most disciplined defensive units in the tournament.
UCLA’s defensive intensity is what separates them from most teams, ranking seventh in the country in forcing turnovers on 22.8% of opponent possessions. Kobe Johnson (1.7 steals per game), Skyy Clark (1.3), and Eric Dailey Jr. (1.3) lead a relentless defense that thrives on pressuring ball handlers and disrupting offensive rhythm.
Offensively, UCLA lacks a dominant scorer, but Tyler Bilodeau (13.6 PPG) has emerged as their most reliable option. However, his inconsistency and forced shots down the stretch have made the Bruins vulnerable against high-scoring teams.
The Bruins’ key to covering the spread will be forcing Utah State into turnovers and controlling the tempo. If UCLA can slow the game down and disrupt Utah State’s passing lanes, they will have a clear advantage.
Utah State Aggies: High-Powered Offense Meets Toughest Test
🔹 Record: 26-7
🔹 Last Game: 75-62 loss to Colorado State (Mountain West Tournament)
🔹 Key Strength: Elite ball movement & efficient scoring (80.9 PPG, 30th in NCAA)
The Aggies enter March Madness looking for back-to-back first-round wins after blowing past TCU last year, 88-72. Their offense is among the most efficient in the nation, ranking top 30 in scoring and assisting on 61.1% of their made field goals.
Utah State’s backcourt trio of Drake Allen (3.9 APG), Mason Falslev (3.7 APG), and Ian Martinez (2.7 APG) runs one of the most fluid passing offenses in the country. Martinez also leads the team in scoring at 16.8 PPG, while Falslev adds 14.9 PPG and contributes from beyond the arc.
The biggest concern for Utah State is UCLA’s defensive pressure. The Aggies take care of the ball well (only 10.7 turnovers per game), but they have yet to face a defensive unit as aggressive as the Bruins. If they can break through UCLA’s defensive wall, their offensive rhythm could keep this game closer than expected.
Betting Prediction & Total
🔥 Pick: Utah State +5.5
🔥 Total: Over 144.0
This game comes down to tempo and execution. If UCLA can slow things down and force turnovers, they will have the edge. However, Utah State’s efficient offense and ability to move the ball well makes them a dangerous underdog.
UCLA hasn’t been consistent enough offensively to trust them with a near six-point spread, especially against a Utah State team that can score at will. Expect the Aggies to keep it close, even if they don’t pull off the upset.
🔹 Final Score Prediction: UCLA 75, Utah State 71
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
