Notre Dame (13-1-0) at Penn State (13-2-0)
- When: Jan 9 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Notre Dame (#7) @ Penn State (#6)
Moneyline
Notre Dame (#7) -120
Penn State (#6) EVEN
Notre Dame (#7) @ Penn State (#6)
Point Spread
Notre Dame (#7) -1.5 (-105)
Penn State (#6) 1.5 (-115)
Notre Dame (#7) @ Penn State (#6)
Total
Over 45.5 (-110)
Under 45.5 (-110)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Passing Team Leaders:
Notre Dame: Riley Leonard 2383 Yds
Penn State: Drew Allar 3192 Yds
Team Stats
| Notre Dame | Penn State | |
| 13-1 | Record | 13-2 |
| 6-0 | Away | 6-1 |
| 12-2-0 | ATS | 8-7-0 |
| 7-7-0 | O/U | 6-9-0 |
Last Matchup:
PSU 31-10, September 8th, 2007
Game Preview
Notre Dame enters the Orange Bowl as a slight -1.5 favorite with a total set at 45.5 points as they prepare for a College Football Playoff semifinal clash against Penn State. Both historic programs are hungry to break their decades-long national championship droughts, making this a high-stakes showdown for bettors and fans alike.
Betting Breakdown
This semifinal battle in Miami pits seventh-seeded Notre Dame (13-1) against sixth-seeded Penn State (13-2), with the winner advancing to face either Texas or Ohio State in the national championship on January 20. Notre Dame is chasing its first national title since 1988, while Penn State is aiming to hoist its first trophy since 1986.
Penn State enters fresh off a dominant 31-14 Fiesta Bowl win over Boise State and previously dismantled SMU 38-10. Meanwhile, Notre Dame stunned No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl with a 23-10 win, despite managing just 244 total yards. The Fighting Irish snapped a 10-game losing streak in major bowl and national championship appearances with that victory.
Key Matchups & Betting X-Factors
Turnover Battle: Notre Dame ranks third nationally in turnover margin (+18), forcing mistakes at critical moments. Safety Xavier Watts has been a game-changer with six interceptions and a fumble recovery this season. Penn State, ranked 20th in turnover margin (+10), must protect the ball to avoid falling into Notre Dame’s opportunistic trap.
Penn State Ground Game: The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack, powered by Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, has racked up 2,041 yards and 17 touchdowns. Their ability to control the clock and keep Notre Dame’s offense off the field will be crucial.
Notre Dame’s Dual-Threat QB: Riley Leonard is the heart of Notre Dame’s offense, throwing for 2,383 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for 831 yards and 15 touchdowns. His versatility will test Penn State’s defense, particularly if star linebacker Abdul Carter, who has 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, is limited due to injury.
Historical Context
The all-time series between these two programs is tied 9-9-1, with their last meeting in 2007 ending in a 31-10 Penn State victory. Notre Dame holds a slight edge in bowl meetings, winning the 1976 Gator Bowl. However, the Fighting Irish are just 2-3 in Orange Bowl history, while Penn State boasts a 4-1 record in this postseason classic.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-1.5): Notre Dame’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers and limiting explosive plays, which could give them a slight edge. However, Penn State’s physical running game and big-play potential make this essentially a pick’em scenario. The slight lean here is toward Notre Dame if their defense holds strong.
Total Pick (45.5): This total reflects two disciplined defensive units. However, the explosive potential of Riley Leonard and Penn State’s rushing duo could push the total over, especially if turnovers lead to quick scores. The over at 45.0 feels attainable in a hard-fought semifinal.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Riley Leonard over 250 total yards: His dual-threat abilities make this a solid play, especially if Notre Dame leans on his legs and arm.
Kaytron Allen over 75 rushing yards: With Penn State likely to lean on their running game, Allen should have ample opportunities.
Xavier Watts to record an interception: Given Penn State’s reliance on deep passes, Watts could find himself in prime position to add to his takeaway tally.
Prediction:
Expect a nail-biter that hinges on a key defensive play late. Notre Dame’s ability to capitalize on turnovers and Leonard’s leadership could be the difference-maker in securing a narrow cover and a trip to the national championship game.
Orange Bowl Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: Notre Dame 23-20
Expert Pick: Notre Dame -1½ (-105) & Under 45½
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $373
- Orange Bowl Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
