Auburn (26-2) at Kentucky (19-9)
- When: Mar 1 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, USA
- Where to watch: ABC
SEC Showdown: Auburn vs. Kentucky
Auburn Favored by 5.0 | Total Set at 165.5
The top-ranked Auburn Tigers (26-2, 14-1 SEC) are on the brink of history as they travel to Lexington on Saturday to face the Kentucky Wildcats (19-9, 8-7 SEC) in a pivotal conference clash. The Tigers have already secured a double-bye for the SEC Tournament, but a win here would clinch at least a share of the regular-season title.
However, beating Kentucky on the road has been nearly impossible for Auburn. The Tigers haven’t won in Lexington since 1988, suffering 20 consecutive losses at Rupp Arena. Historically, Auburn is just 2-51 all-time in Lexington, but this team is built differently.
Can Auburn break the streak and cement themselves as the SEC’s top team, or will Kentucky play spoiler on their home floor?
Auburn Outlook: Chasing History
The Tigers are in championship form, riding a five-game winning streak while boasting a stellar 7-1 road record. A win here would not only keep them in control of the SEC race, but also put them in prime position for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Head coach Bruce Pearl understands the challenge ahead, as Auburn has never been dominant in Lexington.
“The reason why we have not won there is because, historically, Kentucky’s been the best team in the league,” Pearl said. “But we’re trying to put a dent in that right now.”
If Auburn is going to rewrite history, it will start with National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome, who leads the team in:
Scoring (18.8 PPG)
Rebounding (11.0 RPG)
Blocks (66 total)
Chad Baker-Mazara (12.7 PPG, 33 steals) is another key weapon, providing defensive versatility and timely shooting.
The Tigers have their eyes set on matching the program’s single-season win record (30), but first, they need to take care of business against the Wildcats.
Key Trends for Auburn:
5-0 SU in last five games.
7-1 on the road this season.
2-51 all-time in Lexington.
Kentucky Outlook: Defending Home Court
While Auburn is surging, Kentucky is still fighting for positioning in the SEC standings. The Wildcats are 14-2 at home, and with wins in four of their last six, they’re finding ways to stay competitive in a deep conference.
Kentucky is coming off an 83-82 road victory over Oklahoma, where Otega Oweh carried the team with 28 points, including the game-winning shot with 6.4 seconds left.
Oweh has been a force all season, leading the team with 16.1 points per game. However, injuries have hampered the Wildcats, with both Lamont Butler (shoulder) and Jaxson Robinson (wrist) missing time in recent weeks.
Both players returned against Oklahoma, though Robinson couldn’t play in the second half due to his wrist flaring up. Their availability against Auburn could be a major factor.
Despite their injury issues, Kentucky is still dangerous, with:
Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) running the offense.
Jaxson Robinson (13.0 PPG, 62 3PM) providing perimeter scoring.
Koby Brea (71 3PM) as the team’s top deep threat.
The Wildcats have been resilient under first-year coach Mark Pope, who believes his team is built for close-game battles.
“I do think our guys captured an experience that they will call back on when we get in another close game,” Pope said.
Key Trends for Kentucky:
14-2 at home this season.
4-2 in their last six games.
Won four of their last six meetings vs. Auburn.
Prediction & Betting Angles
Auburn’s dominance this season has been undeniable, but their historical struggles in Lexington cannot be ignored. Kentucky thrives at home and has already proven it can win in close games.
The Tigers have the better team, but will the pressure of breaking the streak impact them?
Final Prediction:
Kentucky +5.0 covers in a tight game.
Over 165.5 cashes as both teams push the pace.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
