Milwaukee (32-24) at Houston (35-22)
- When: Feb 25 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: SCHN
Game Preview
Houston Favored by 3.5, Total Set at 227
The Houston Rockets will attempt to halt their recent skid when they host the red-hot Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. Houston has struggled without veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, dropping seven of their last ten games, while the Bucks have surged with four straight victories, bolstered by their trade deadline acquisitions.
With Houston favored by 3.5 points at home and the total set at 227, this matchup presents intriguing betting angles. The Rockets desperately need a win, but Milwaukee’s revamped roster has been firing on all cylinders. Can Houston get back on track, or will the Bucks continue their strong push toward postseason positioning?
Houston Rockets: Searching for Stability Without VanVleet
One of the biggest reasons for Houston’s struggles this month has been the absence of Fred VanVleet, who has now missed nine straight games with an ankle injury. The offensive chemistry between VanVleet and Alperen Sengun has been a critical factor in the Rockets’ success, and without their veteran floor general, Houston has struggled to generate efficient offense.
Head coach Ime Udoka has experimented with multiple ball-handlers, including Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Sengun, but the results have been inconsistent. Green and Thompson have had turnover issues, while Sengun committed a career-high eight turnovers in Houston’s recent win over Minnesota.
Udoka acknowledged the void left by VanVleet, emphasizing that his basketball IQ and ability to control the tempo have been sorely missed.
“Fred is crucial to our whole ecosystem of what we do because of his IQ and the headiness that he plays with,” Udoka said. “We’re missing some of that, but other guys are getting the opportunity to improve as well.”
VanVleet practiced on Monday and remains a game-time decision. His availability could have a significant impact on Houston’s ability to cover the spread and control the game.
Key Betting Trends for Houston:
The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. Eastern Conference opponents
The Rockets are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall
Milwaukee Bucks: Peaking at the Right Time
The Bucks have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the trade deadline, as the additions of Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., and Jericho Sims have given Milwaukee a much-needed boost in depth and versatility.
Milwaukee notched its fourth straight win on Monday with a 120-113 comeback victory over the Miami Heat, overcoming a double-digit first-quarter deficit. Head coach Doc Rivers praised the impact of the team’s new additions, noting how Porter and Kuzma have changed the dynamic of their rotation.
“That’s where Scoot (Porter) comes in,” Rivers said. “That’s why we’re doing it. We believe Scoot and Kuz, just their athleticism, their length (is beneficial). It just gives us a lot of speed and we try to make sure we have one roller — and that’s Jericho — and two shooters around those guys, and I think it’s a good fit.”
The biggest benefit of these moves has been the improved non-Giannis minutes. Earlier in the season, Milwaukee struggled whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard went to the bench, but now, they have more options to sustain offense and maintain defensive intensity.
With Bobby Portis Jr. still serving his 25-game suspension, the Bucks have relied heavily on their new acquisitions, and so far, the results have been promising.
Key Betting Trends for Milwaukee:
The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs
Milwaukee is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall
The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games
Game Prediction & Best Bets
The key to this game is Fred VanVleet’s status. If he plays, Houston’s offense will look much more composed, and they will have a legitimate chance to cover the spread. If he remains out, Milwaukee’s depth and momentum could prove to be the difference.
The Bucks have been rolling since the trade deadline, and their underdog value makes them a strong play. Additionally, Houston’s inconsistent scoring without VanVleet suggests that the Under may be the smarter total play.
Best Bets:
Milwaukee +3.5 – The Bucks have been excellent as underdogs and are playing better basketball right now.
Under 227 – Houston’s offense has been shaky without VanVleet, and Milwaukee’s defense has improved with their new pieces.
Milwaukee Moneyline (+135) – If VanVleet is out, the Bucks could steal this outright.
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee 112, Houston 106
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
