Duke (24-3) at Miami (6-21)
- When: Feb 25 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Duke Favored by 22, Total Set at 150.5
Tuesday night’s ACC showdown between No. 2 Duke and Miami features two teams on opposite ends of the conference standings. Duke is steamrolling opponents and looking to lock up a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament, while Miami is enduring one of its worst seasons in three decades and has struggled to stay competitive in conference play.
Bovada oddsmakers have Duke as a massive 22-point favorite, and for good reason. The Blue Devils dominated Miami 89-54 in their first meeting earlier this season, and with Duke riding a four-game win streak, they’ll look to deliver another blowout victory on the road. The question isn’t whether Duke will win, but whether they’ll cover such a large spread.
Duke Blue Devils: Continuing Their March Toward a Top Seed
Duke has been on fire, winning four straight games, including an impressive 110-67 dismantling of Illinois at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. That performance helped them jump to No. 2 in the latest AP Poll, despite Florida not losing a game last week.
The star of the show remains freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Against Illinois, Flagg put up 16 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in just 23 minutes, proving once again why he is one of the most complete players in the country.
Even with his elite talent, Flagg is not a volume shooter, something that ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg praised.
“He’s just different. A guy of his talent, he could chase shots. But he plays with poise, lets the game come to him. Then he makes one of those plays where you go, ‘Whoa!'”
Beyond Flagg, Duke boasts a deep and talented lineup. Freshman Kon Knueppel has emerged as a reliable second scorer, averaging 13.2 points per game, while 7-2 center Khaman Maluach has been a force inside. The Blue Devils also have experienced guards in Sion James and Tyrese Proctor, both of whom have been efficient playmakers.
Head coach Jon Scheyer has emphasized unselfish play, and that was on full display against Illinois, where Duke tallied 28 assists as all five starters scored in double figures.
Key Betting Trends for Duke:
Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games
The Over has hit in five of Duke’s last six games
Duke is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite of 20+ points
Miami Hurricanes: Trying to Stay Afloat Amid a Lost Season
Miami’s season has been nothing short of a disaster, as the Hurricanes have lost three straight games and have struggled to stay competitive in ACC play. Their most recent loss came at home against Virginia Tech, 81-68, despite leading by six points early in the second half.
Interim head coach Bill Courtney has struggled to get results after taking over for Jim Larrañaga in December, and Miami’s defense has been a major liability.
“We tried everything. We couldn’t get stops when we needed them. We didn’t get out to the shooters. We didn’t communicate. We lost our man,” Courtney said after the loss to Virginia Tech.
Adding to Miami’s struggles is the absence of their two best players. Leading scorer Matthew Cleveland (16.3 PPG) missed his first game of the season with a leg injury, and his status for Tuesday remains uncertain. Meanwhile, veteran point guard Nigel Pack (13.9 PPG) has been sidelined for most of the season, leaving Miami without its primary playmaker and outside shooting threat.
Still, Miami has some bright spots, as A.J. Staton-McCray, Lynn Kidd, and Brandon Johnson all played well against Virginia Tech. McCray led the team with 21 points, Kidd had 16 points and nine rebounds, and Johnson hit two threes while scoring 10 points.
Miami will need a near-perfect game to even keep this close, especially against a Duke team firing on all cylinders.
Key Betting Trends for Miami:
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games as a double-digit underdog
The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall
Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Duke
Game Prediction & Best Bets
Duke should have no trouble winning this game, but covering a 22-point spread on the road is a different challenge. Miami is at home and will play with nothing to lose, and if Matthew Cleveland is available, the Hurricanes might be able to hang around long enough to cover.
Duke’s offense has been rolling, and with Miami’s defensive struggles, the Over looks like a strong bet. However, with such a lopsided matchup, the first-half spread may offer better value, as Duke should build an early lead before potentially easing up late.
Best Bets:
Duke First Half -11.5 – The Blue Devils should jump out to an early double-digit lead.
Over 150.5 – Miami’s defense has been weak, and Duke’s ball movement should lead to plenty of scoring.
Miami +22 – If Cleveland plays, the Hurricanes might cover late in garbage time.
Final Score Prediction: Duke 91, Miami 72
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
