Michigan State (22-5) at Maryland (21-6)
- When: Feb 26 2025, 6:30 PM
- Where: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD, USA
- Where to watch: BTN
Game Preview
Maryland Favored by 3.5, Total Set at 149.5
Two Big Ten powerhouses square off on Wednesday night as No. 16 Maryland hosts No. 8 Michigan State in what could be a pivotal matchup in the conference standings. The Terrapins are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Spartans have knocked off two ranked opponents in a row, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle in College Park.
Bovada oddsmakers have Maryland as a 3.5-point home favorite, and with the total set at 149.5, this game is expected to have plenty of offensive firepower on display. Can the Terrapins’ dominant starting five continue their red-hot scoring streak, or will Michigan State’s balanced attack and deep frontcourt prove too much to handle?
Maryland Terrapins: Riding the Momentum of “The Crab Five”
Maryland (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten) has been on an absolute tear, winning eight of its last nine games, thanks in large part to its elite starting five, dubbed “The Crab Five.” This group, featuring Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Selton Miguel, Derik Queen, Julian Reese, and Rodney Rice, averages a combined 70.4 points per game, the highest scoring starting unit in the nation among power conference teams.
The Terrapins have thrived on offensive efficiency, particularly from their big men. Julian Reese and freshman standout Derik Queen have been dominant in the paint, leading Maryland to four straight games scoring 90+ points.
Reese has hit 64.7% of his shots (22-for-34) during the streak.
Queen has been equally effective, shooting 64.4% (29-for-45).
Head coach Kevin Willard has made it clear that while the bench production has been limited, he has no concerns as long as his starters continue to produce at this level.
“I just like the way they’re playing,” Willard said. “I like our defensive intensity. More than anything, I like the fact that I can throw the ball inside on a consistent basis.”
Maryland’s offensive firepower and inside dominance have been the key to its success, and if they can control the paint against Michigan State’s deep frontcourt, they’ll have a great chance to extend their winning streak.
Key Betting Trends for Maryland:
Maryland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
The Terrapins are 10-1 at home this season.
Maryland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. Michigan State.
Michigan State Spartans: Can Their Frontcourt Contain Maryland’s Stars?
Michigan State (22-5, 13-3 Big Ten) has been rolling lately, picking up statement wins over Purdue and Michigan to claim the top spot in the Big Ten standings. However, they’ll now face one of the hottest teams in the conference on the road.
The Spartans don’t rely on one dominant scorer, but instead use a balanced offensive attack and a deep frontcourt rotation to wear down opponents. The four-man group of Szymon Zapala (7’0), Carson Cooper (6’11), Xavier Booker (6’11), and Jaxon Kohler (6’9) has been a major factor in Michigan State’s success, combining for 23.8 points and 19.1 rebounds per game.
The biggest x-factor has been freshman sensation Jase Richardson, who has taken his game to another level over the past five contests:
Averaging 17.2 PPG on 54.7% shooting (29-for-53).
Dropped 21 points and 3 steals in Michigan State’s 75-62 win over Michigan.
“Jase Richardson was phenomenal,” head coach Tom Izzo said. “I actually think he took another big step today, not just in his play but in the other parts of his game.”
Richardson’s emergence has lightened the scoring load on Jaden Akins (13.0 PPG) while also giving freshman point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (5.8 APG) another elite scoring option.
The Spartans have dominated Maryland in recent years, winning the last six meetings, but none of those wins have been by more than 10 points. If they can slow down Maryland’s inside attack, Michigan State could extend that winning streak to seven.
Key Betting Trends for Michigan State:
Spartans are 6-0 straight up in their last six games vs. Maryland.
Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
Spartans are just 4-4 on the road this season.
Game Prediction & Best Bets
This game features two red-hot teams, both playing their best basketball at the perfect time. While Maryland’s offense has been clicking, Michigan State has the depth and experience to keep this game close.
The Spartans have dominated this matchup historically, and their ability to rotate fresh bigs against Maryland’s frontcourt should help slow the Terrapins’ attack.
While Maryland is the slight favorite at home, this feels like a game that will be decided in the final minutes, making Michigan State +3.5 the better play.
Best Bets:
Michigan State +3.5 – The Spartans have won six straight against Maryland, and their frontcourt depth could be the difference late.
Under 149.5 – Both teams play at a slower pace than their scoring numbers suggest, and Michigan State’s defense could keep this game lower-scoring than expected.
Final Score Prediction: Maryland 74, Michigan State 72
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
