North Carolina (22-13) vs San Diego State (21-9)
- When: Mar 18 2025, 9:10 PM
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TruTV
Game Preview
North Carolina vs. San Diego State – First Four Showdown Betting Preview
Spread: North Carolina -4.5 | Total: 143.0
Two teams with very different paths to the NCAA Tournament collide on Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, as North Carolina takes on San Diego State in a First Four battle between No. 11 seeds. The winner will advance to face No. 6 Ole Miss in the South Region’s first round on Friday in Milwaukee.
North Carolina Tar Heels
(22-13, At-Large Bid)
North Carolina’s inclusion in the tournament stirred controversy, as the Tar Heels barely secured a spot in the 68-team field. Their season was a rollercoaster, highlighted by a late four-game winning streak that kept them in the conversation for an at-large bid. The Tar Heels won two ACC Tournament games before falling to Duke for the second time in a week, finishing with just one Quad 1 victory all season (1-12) but a perfect 8-0 record in Quad 2 matchups.
Head coach Hubert Davis credited his squad’s ability to focus and perform under pressure. “We’ve been in must-win mode for over a month, and that stretch is when we played our best basketball,” Davis said.
Key Players to Watch:
RJ Davis (G, 17.0 PPG) – The Tar Heels’ offensive leader will need to control the tempo and create opportunities against a strong Aztecs defense.
Ian Jackson (G, 12.4 PPG) – A key perimeter shooter who can help stretch the floor against SDSU.
Seth Trimble (G, 11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) – Provides secondary scoring and rebounding presence.
Ven-Allen Lubin (F, 8.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) – A physical presence inside who will be crucial in the rebounding battle.
North Carolina’s size and depth give them the edge, but they must overcome inconsistencies that plagued them all season. They’ll need to capitalize on scoring runs and avoid stretches of stagnant offense against a stingy Aztecs defense.
San Diego State Aztecs
(21-9, At-Large Bid)
The Aztecs enter March Madness after an anxious Selection Sunday, securing an at-large bid despite an early exit in the Mountain West Tournament. San Diego State has been a consistent powerhouse under head coach Brian Dutcher, making deep tournament runs in recent years, including a national championship appearance in 2023 and a Sweet 16 finish last season.
SDSU is built on defense, ranking among the top teams in defensive efficiency, and will rely on that strength to slow down the Tar Heels.
Key Players to Watch:
Nick Boyd (G, 13.4 PPG) – The Aztecs’ leading scorer must step up against a North Carolina team that struggles to defend the perimeter.
Miles Byrd (G, 12.6 PPG) – Another key offensive weapon who can create scoring opportunities.
Magoon Gwath (F, 8.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG) – The Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year returns after missing five games with a knee injury, providing a much-needed defensive boost inside.
“We always play our best basketball in March,” Dutcher said. “This is the first time we bowed out early in the conference tournament, but we know what we’re capable of.”
Betting Prediction & Final Score Projection
North Carolina’s experience and scoring depth give them the edge, but San Diego State’s defensive prowess makes this a tight contest. The Aztecs have struggled offensively, and if North Carolina can control the boards and avoid turnovers, they should pull away late.
Prediction: North Carolina 72, San Diego State 65
Best Bet: North Carolina -4.5
Lean: Under 143.0 – Both teams have solid defenses, and tournament nerves may keep this game lower-scoring than expected.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
