Xavier (22-11) vs Illinois (21-12)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 9:45 PM
- Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Illinois vs. Xavier
Spread: Illinois -4.0 | Total: 161.5Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12 SU, 18-15 ATS)
Seed: No. 6 | Conference: Big Ten
Illinois is back in the Big Dance for a fifth straight year, but they’re searching for consistency heading into their opening-round matchup. After rattling off four straight wins, the Illini were smacked by Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, losing 88-65 and shooting just 36.5% from the floor.
Despite the stumble, Illinois boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the field, averaging 83.8 points per game. Their offensive depth is a strength, with five players scoring in double figures. The squad is also elite on the glass, ranking second nationally in rebounds per game (42.5) and sixth in rebound margin (+8.8). However, sloppy ball control remains a concern — they turned it over 17 times vs. Maryland.
Illinois forward Kasparas Jakucionis leads the team with 15.0 points per game, while 7’1″ center Tomislav Ivisic anchors the paint and averages 12.5 points with 7.7 boards. The return of freshman forward Morez Johnson Jr. from a wrist injury gives them added interior presence.
If Illinois limits turnovers and exploits its edge on the glass, they’re in position to control the tempo and cover the short spread.
Xavier Musketeers (22-11 SU, 17-16 ATS)
Seed: No. 11 | Conference: Big East
Xavier enters this first-round clash with momentum after rallying from a 10-point deficit to knock off Texas 86-80 in the First Four. The Musketeers shot 55.2% from the field and drained 12-of-25 from deep, showing they can heat up in a hurry.
Head coach Sean Miller praised his team’s resilience, and it’s hard to ignore how often this group responds when doubted. Xavier’s offense averages 78.3 points per game and features dynamic scoring threats like Zach Freemantle (17.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG), Ryan Conwell (16.7 PPG), and Dailyn Swain (10.5 PPG).
Marcus Foster was the unexpected hero against Texas, scoring 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including four triples. That kind of scoring depth could be the X-factor against a sometimes inconsistent Illinois defense.
While the Musketeers are a solid rebounding team, they’ll be tested against the Illini’s size and physicality. They’ll need to stay hot from the perimeter and limit second-chance opportunities to pull off another upset.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
Both teams are capable of scoring in bunches, which makes the total of 161.5 enticing for Over bettors. Illinois has the rebounding edge and more scoring options, but Xavier is dangerous when shooting well from deep.
This should be a fast-paced, high-possession affair. If Illinois can clean up the turnovers, their size and offensive balance should wear down Xavier over 40 minutes.
Final Score Prediction:
Illinois 85, Xavier 78
Best Bets:
Illinois -4.0
Over 161.5
Expect a competitive game early, but Illinois’ offensive firepower and rebounding dominance should create separation in the second half.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
