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New Mexico (3-1) at San Jose State (1-3)
- When: Oct 3 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
- Last Meeting: San Jose State 52-24, October 14th, 2023
New Mexico vs San Jose State Preview & Prediction
Spread: San Jose State -2.5
Moneyline: San Jose State (-135)
Total: 58.5
New Mexico Lobos Betting Breakdown
The Lobos head to CEFCU Stadium riding momentum and a 3-1 record, coming off a strong 38-20 win over rival New Mexico State. They racked up 476 total yards in that matchup, highlighted by a balanced offensive approach that saw 132 rushing yards and 344 through the air. But it was their defense that really set the tone, holding the Aggies to a laughable 15 rushing yards on 30 carries.
On the season, New Mexico averages 30.5 points per game and ranks top 60 nationally in rushing yards (174.0 per game). They’ve moved the chains 87 times and limited mistakes with just 16 penalties. Defensively, they’ve allowed just 8 total touchdowns (4 rushing, 4 passing), and give up 367.0 yards per game, respectable middle-tier numbers. The weak spot? Their pass defense, surrendering over 255 yards a game through the air.
If they can stiffen up in the secondary and keep San Jose’s pass attack in check, they’ll have a real shot at the upset.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Breakdown
San Jose State limps into this matchup with a 1-3 record, but don’t be fooled by the win-loss column. Their last game? A heartbreaking 30-29 loss to Stanford that proved they can hang with Power 5 competition. They outgained the Cardinal with 524 total yards and averaged 7.3 yards per play.
QB play has been their strength, putting up nearly 297 passing yards per game, good for 21st in the nation. But they’ve struggled to punch it in, scoring just 20.3 points per game (115th nationally). The Spartans’ run game has been nearly invisible, averaging just 102.3 yards per contest. And while their defense can stuff the run (just 1.4 yards per carry allowed vs Stanford), their pass coverage has been a disaster, ranking 126th and allowing over 277 yards per game.
Prediction & Betting Angle
This matchup screams offense. Both teams can move the ball, but San Jose’s pass defense is too leaky to trust with a spread cover. New Mexico has a better overall balance and more scoring consistency, and that could tilt the scales.
Final Score: New Mexico 34, San Jose State 31
Lean: New Mexico (+115)
Total: Over 58.5 – both teams can light it up when needed.
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
