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Miami (4-0) at Florida State (3-1)
- When: Oct 4 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Where to watch: ABC
- Last Meeting: Miami 36-14, October 26th, 2024
(3) Miami vs (18) Florida State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Miami -4.0
Moneyline: Miami (-185)
Total: 54.5
Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0 ACC)
After four straight games at home followed by a bye, the undefeated Hurricanes finally head into hostile territory for their ACC opener and it just happens to be in Tallahassee against their biggest rival. Miami, currently laying 4 points on the spread, looks to prove it can win just as convincingly on the road.
Quarterback Carson Beck has been steady in his first season leading this Miami offense, hitting nearly 73% of his passes for 972 yards, 7 touchdowns, and only 3 picks. A well-protected pocket, thanks to an elite offensive line, and a dynamic group of skill players have helped him find his rhythm early.
Defensively, the Hurricanes are top of the ACC, allowing just 11.5 points and 244.5 total yards per game. That kind of balance on both sides makes Miami not just a trendy pick this week, but a legitimate threat to take control of the conference early.
Hurricanes Prediction: Miami’s defense tightens up late, while Beck keeps drives alive with quick reads and smart throws. Look for Miami to cover.
Miami Player Prop Pick: Carson Beck Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns — With FSU’s secondary struggling, Beck should find the end zone multiple times through the air.
Florida State Seminoles (3-1, 0-1 ACC)
Florida State enters this game licking its wounds after a tough 46-38 double OT loss at Virginia. That setback not only dropped them in the rankings, but also exposed major defensive flaws, especially after giving up 440 total yards, including 211 on the ground.
Still, the Seminoles offense is no joke. They lead the country in scoring (53.0 PPG) and total offense (600.0 YPG). Even in defeat, they tallied 514 yards, their third straight 500+ yard performance.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos continues to be the spark, executing a high-speed offense that keeps defenses on their heels. However, the defense must patch up its holes fast, because against a Miami squad that can punch in points consistently, there’s no room for error.
Seminoles Prediction: FSU hangs around with explosive plays and home-field energy, but defensive lapses prove costly in the end.
Florida State Player Prop Pick: Tommy Castellanos Over 175.5 Passing Yards — Expect him to throw often as FSU chases points, especially late in the second half.
Prediction Breakdown
Both teams bring firepower on offense, but Miami’s balanced approach and defensive edge tilt this matchup their way. Florida State can hang for stretches, especially with Castellanos slinging it, but their leaky defense is a concern. Expect Miami to control the pace, win the trench battle, and ultimately pull away late to cover the spread.
Final Score: Miami 32, Florida State 26
Lean: Miami -4.0
Total: Over 54.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
