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Houston (6-5-0) at Indianapolis (8-3-0)
- When: Nov 30 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Where to watch: CBS
- Last Meeting: HOU 23-20, October 27th, 2024
Houston vs Indianapolis Preview & Prediction
Spread: Indianapolis -3.0
Moneyline: Indianapolis (-165)
Total: 44.0
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
The Colts return from their bye week with one major storyline hovering over everything: Daniel Jones is feeling the fire. His recent turnovers, shaky finishes, and struggles under heavy pressure have placed him squarely in the spotlight. Two losses in three games have also led many to wonder if Indy’s early season shine was fool’s gold or if Jones simply hit a rough patch.
Jones’ biggest obstacle lately has been dealing with aggressive pass rushes. Opponents have figured out that if they heat him up, the entire Colts offense loses rhythm. Center Tanor Bortolini expects defenses to keep sending pressure until Indy proves it can handle it.
Indianapolis still sits at 8 and 3, firmly in the AFC playoff mix, but Sunday brings another stress test against a Houston defense that smells blood. The Colts avoided sacks last week, but Jones was dropped fifteen times in the three games before that. If Indy wants to justify being a three point home favorite, the offensive line needs to respond immediately.
Indy knows the ground game must be part of the solution. Jonathan Taylor saw only sixteen carries in Kansas City, and coach Shane Steichen admitted that might have been a mistake. Historically, when Taylor has a quiet game, he comes back the next week running like a man attempting to escape Earth’s gravity. That will be vital against one of the league’s premier defenses.
Defensively, Indianapolis finally had all three Pro Bowl corners on the field together. Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore give this team elite flexibility in man coverage, and early returns looked promising. For a pressure heavy matchup like this, having those three healthy is a major edge.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
Houston comes in at 6 and 5 but playing like a team nobody wants to face. Their defense is on a tear, leading the league in total yardage allowed and ranking second in scoring defense. Over the last three weeks they have racked up sixteen sacks and forced multiple errors from high end quarterbacks.
Just ask Josh Allen, who suffered eight sacks and threw two picks against this group. Houston’s defensive front swarms relentlessly and refuses to allow clean pockets. Expect that blueprint again as they try to rattle Jones and cut Indy’s division lead in half.
The Texans also get C.J. Stroud back after a concussion sidelined him for three games. Stroud has owned the Colts so far in his early career, going three and one and playing with the calmness of a ten year veteran. His return instantly elevates Houston’s offensive ceiling.
Houston’s defense has been the real storyline, holding nine opponents to twenty points or fewer and closing in on a franchise record for points allowed per game. Players like Will Anderson Jr. emphasize a team wide mentality of nonstop pursuit and discipline. This defense does not wait for mistakes; it creates them.
The big question is whether Houston can keep Jonathan Taylor from taking over. They know if he finds rhythm, the game changes completely.
NFL Prediction & Betting Angle
This is a classic AFC South slugfest with major playoff implications. Houston’s defense is in elite form and Stroud’s return is a major spark, but Indianapolis at home with its full secondary healthy should keep the game tight. Still, Houston’s pressure may be the difference late.
Final Score: Texans 20, Colts 17
Lean: Houston (+140)
Total: Under 44.0
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
