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Cincinnati (4-8-0) at Buffalo (8-4-0)
- When: Dec 7 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Where to watch: Orchard Park, NY
- Last Meeting: CIN 24-18, November 5th, 2023
Cincinnati vs Buffalo Preview & Prediction
Spread: Buffalo -6.0
Moneyline: Buffalo (-275)
Total: 53.5
Buffalo Bills Breakdown
Buffalo finally put together a complete performance in last week’s 26-7 beatdown of Pittsburgh, but Sean McDermott is treating it as nothing more than a checkpoint. The Bills have been stuck in a win-one lose-one cycle for two months, and with the AFC playoff picture jammed with contenders at or above .500, Buffalo cannot afford another stumble.
The Bills enter at 8-4 and showed they can win through physicality when injuries pile up. Their offense leaned heavily on the ground game with a season high 249 rushing yards, which helped take pressure off Josh Allen. The defense delivered its most cohesive effort of the year, setting the tone early and even producing points with Christian Benford’s fumble return.
This week’s challenge is sharper. Cincinnati comes in with Joe Burrow back in the lineup, giving Buffalo a very different look compared to the version of the Bengals that fell apart without him. McDermott knows Buffalo cannot rely on inconsistency with the schedule tightening and the stakes rising.
Historically, December has been Buffalo’s sweet spot. Since 2020, the Bills own a league best 23-4 record in regular season games played from December onward. Allen embraces this time of year, calling it the most pressure filled stretch that demands execution each week.
Cincinnati Bengals Breakdown
Cincinnati has life again. Burrow returned from his toe issue in a 32-14 win over Baltimore and immediately recalibrated an offense that sputtered in his absence. A carbon fiber plate and custom orthotic may not be comfortable, but after a slow first half Burrow settled in and tossed two second half touchdowns.
Even with a 4-8 record, the Bengals still have a pulse in the AFC North race because the division is bottlenecked at the top. A wild card bid is essentially gone, but a late push is still possible as long as Burrow stays upright.
The surprise last week was Cincinnati’s defense. Ranked near the bottom of the league in most metrics, that unit delivered its cleanest performance of the season by allowing only 16 first downs and creating five turnovers. Tackling, which has been a major flaw, has improved lately. Cincinnati allowed 166.4 rushing yards per game in its first nine outings but has cut that number to 113.7 over the past three. Missed tackles have dropped significantly as well.
Burrow’s track record late in seasons is elite. He is 18-5 in December and beyond with a nearly unmatched combination of accuracy, yardage, and efficiency. He already owns a postseason win in Buffalo and is trying to become only the second quarterback ever to go at least 3-0 against Josh Allen.
The Bengals still have defensive vulnerabilities, but with Burrow back they are a more dangerous opponent than their record suggests.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
Buffalo deserves to be favored at home, especially given its late season dominance over the past few years and the fact that the offense finally clicked behind a powerful run game. The question is whether the Bills can maintain that level or sink back into inconsistency.
Cincinnati poses a real threat with Burrow active, but its defensive issues against the run remain a concern. If Buffalo controls the trenches again, the Bengals will struggle to keep pace for four quarters.
The spread at Bills -6.5 is tight but fair. Buffalo’s run game and home field edge give them the edge, although Burrow should make it competitive. The total at 53.5 leans high, but both offenses can generate explosive drives and both quarterbacks thrive in December.
Final Score: Bills 33 Bengals 24
Lean: Buffalo -6.5
Total: Over 53.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
